Failures with great signals

[firepoint525]

With the sad state of AM radio these days, it won't be long before WSM is completely worthless. Nothing against them specifically, it's just that they are on a band that has been slowly dying for the last 30+ years.

Tell that to 840/WHAS, just up I-65 in Louisville. Essentially an identical property in a nearly-identical market and still #1 (tied with co-owned WAMZ). WHAS played their cards right... WSM made mistake after mistake after mistake.

Well, it's like I always say, the best house in the slums is still in the slums. So the best station on the AM dial is still on AM.

 

[BRNout]

Not necessarily so, Firepoint. Your reports of the demise of the AM dial are premature to say the least. To illustrate my point, allow me to provide the example of 2008 station revenue rankings for the Chicago market (top 20 stations only):

1. WBBM-AM 780......... $44.9 million
2. WGN-AM 720........... $44.5 million
3. WTMX-FM 101.9...... $34.8 million
4. WGCI-FM 107.5........ $29.7 million
5. WOJO-FM 105.1........ $22.9 million
6. WLIT-FM 93.9........... $22.1 million
7. WVAZ-FM 102.7........ $20.4 million
8. WLEY-FM 107.9........ $20.3 million
9. WUSN-FM 99.5......... $19.6 million
10. WXRT-FM 93.1......... $18.7 million
11. WBBM-FM 96.3........ $18.5 million
12. WLS-AM 890............ $18.0 million
13. WDRV-FM 97.1........ $16.8 million
14. WKSC-FM 103.5...... $16.7 million
15. WSCR-AM 670........ $15.7 million
16. WLUP-FM 97.9........ $14.4 million
17. WKQX-FM 101.1...... $13.5 million
18. WMVP-AM 1000...... $13.1 million
19. WNUA-FM 95.5....... $12.3 million
20. WPPN-FM 106.7...... $9.7 million

As you can see, the five full-time 50 kw AM signals in the market are all represented in the list with WBBM and WGN taking the top 2 spots. The "slum" (as you put it) is likely inhabited by those graveyard and brokered time AM signals; however, the big 50 kw blowtorches with solid ratings (like WHAS) are still located within a chip shot of the country club.

 

[firepoint525]

I was in Chicago a few months ago, and I can tell you that Chicago is somewhat of an anomaly. But even there, eight out of the top 10 are FMs. I used to listen to WLS at night back in the day (from 400 miles away in west Tennessee), but I can tell you that no one listens to them like that now. Too much static. Even when they did their "big 89 rewind," I tried listening to it straight off the air, and had to give up, because I couldn't receive a decent signal from them. I listened to it online, like I'm sure nearly everyone else did.

 

[michael hagerty]

I was in Chicago a few months ago, and I can tell you that Chicago is somewhat of an anomaly. But even there, eight out of the top 10 are FMs. I used to listen to WLS at night back in the day (from 400 miles away in west Tennessee), but I can tell you that no one listens to them like that now. Too much static. Even when they did their "big 89 rewind," I tried listening to it straight off the air, and had to give up, because I couldn't receive a decent signal from them. I listened to it online, like I'm sure nearly everyone else did.

There's not much incentive in maintaining a monster signal anymore. Advertising is bought on metro PPM only...and only a fraction of that revenue is from outside 6A-7P. All you have to do is adequately cover the city.

 

[BRNout]

I was in Chicago a few months ago, and I can tell you that Chicago is somewhat of an anomaly. But even there, eight out of the top 10 are FMs. I used to listen to WLS at night back in the day (from 400 miles away in west Tennessee), but I can tell you that no one listens to them like that now. Too much static. Even when they did their "big 89 rewind," I tried listening to it straight off the air, and had to give up, because I couldn't receive a decent signal from them. I listened to it online, like I'm sure nearly everyone else did.

What you are saying is simply not true. Chicago is not an anomaly and people still do listen to WLS. However, if listenership is down it's more likely due to boneheaded programming moves than the AM dial position. But you're speaking for yourself and not for the market at large.

As for the "Chicago is an anomaly" comment, I now cite the national list of top billers according to BIA. In the top 10 are: KFI Los Angeles, WINS New York and WCBS New York. Look at Detroit and WWJ is the top biller. I could go on and on. Here's the link to the top 10 article: http://www.ntsmediaonline.com/?p=4340

So FP, you're broad-brush comment is wrong. Yes, for AM as a whole, there's plenty of truth in your comment. However, the big AM stations with solid content still bill VERY well and are likely to do so for several more years. And michael, I'd say that the revenue figures quoted in my posts offer up examples of financial incentive to maintain a monster signal in a major market. AM may be slowly dying, but it's not dead yet - not by any means.

 

[firepoint525]

I was in Chicago a few months ago, and I can tell you that Chicago is somewhat of an anomaly. But even there, eight out of the top 10 are FMs. I used to listen to WLS at night back in the day (from 400 miles away in west Tennessee), but I can tell you that no one listens to them like that now. Too much static. Even when they did their "big 89 rewind," I tried listening to it straight off the air, and had to give up, because I couldn't receive a decent signal from them. I listened to it online, like I'm sure nearly everyone else did.

There's not much incentive in maintaining a monster signal anymore. Advertising is bought on metro PPM only...and only a fraction of that revenue is from outside 6A-7P. All you have to do is adequately cover the city.

That was (kinda) my point. I saw AMs advertised on buses while I was there, but I know that Chicago is a compact (geographically) city. They aren't spread out like we are here in Nashville. So AM might work within the city. But they still need a decent night-time signal there, especially this time of year when it is dark about 18 hours a day.

 

[firepoint525]

I was in Chicago a few months ago, and I can tell you that Chicago is somewhat of an anomaly. But even there, eight out of the top 10 are FMs. I used to listen to WLS at night back in the day (from 400 miles away in west Tennessee), but I can tell you that no one listens to them like that now. Too much static. Even when they did their "big 89 rewind," I tried listening to it straight off the air, and had to give up, because I couldn't receive a decent signal from them. I listened to it online, like I'm sure nearly everyone else did.

What you are saying is simply not true. Chicago is not an anomaly and people still do listen to WLS. However, if listenership is down it's more likely due to boneheaded programming moves than the AM dial position. But you're speaking for yourself and not for the market at large.

As for the "Chicago is an anomaly" comment, I now cite the national list of top billers according to BIA. In the top 10 are: KFI Los Angeles, WINS New York and WCBS New York. Look at Detroit and WWJ is the top biller. I could go on and on. Here's the link to the top 10 article: http://www.ntsmediaonline.com/?p=4340

So FP, you're broad-brush comment is wrong. Yes, for AM as a whole, there's plenty of truth in your comment. However, the big AM stations with solid content still bill VERY well and are likely to do so for several more years. And michael, I'd say that the revenue figures quoted in my posts offer up examples of financial incentive to maintain a monster signal in a major market. AM may be slowly dying, but it's not dead yet - not by any means.

Half the people on this board say that AM is already dead! Then there are those who say that it is not dead yet. I take a middle ground. So I may be proven right in the end.

 

[DavidEduardo]

. I saw AMs advertised on buses while I was there, but I know that Chicago is a compact (geographically) city. They aren't spread out like we are here in Nashville. So AM might work within the city. But they still need a decent night-time signal there, especially this time of year when it is dark about 18 hours a day.

The Chicago MSA is geographically several times the size of the Nashville one, and includes 11 counties in WI, IL and IN. In fact, the Sears and Hancock fm stations don't get any too well to the farther extremes of the market.

AM is dead because few markets have more than one or two full day and night coverage AMs, and some have none. With AM not appealing to persons under 50 all that much, in most of the country the sustaining format on AM, news/talk, is moving to FM to improve the demos. At that point, there is no reason to go to AM. Near-Chicago example: WIBC Indianapolis... packed up the AM format and went to FM, and the 25-54 sales demos shot up.

 

[firepoint525]

David, if you're getting into the MSAs (rather than just the urban core city), then you're going to have an even tougher sell. We have AMs here in Nashville licensed to suburbs because their signal is not strong enough to cover the entire city at night. (Or to put it in broadcaster's terms, they don't give a city-grade coverage over the entire city of Nashville, and that's just the "city" of Nashville, not metro-Nashville/Davidson County as a whole.) I am guessing that there are AMs in Chicago that have a signal strong enough to cover the city of Chicago, even at night, but once you get out into the suburbs, you will be forced to change stations to find something else with an acceptable signal. If that is also true of FM, that would be news to me, although not particularly surprising, given that the FM dial there is probably even more crowded than it is here.

 

[DavidEduardo]

As you can see, the five full-time 50 kw AM signals in the market are all represented in the list with WBBM and WGN taking the top 2 spots. The "slum" (as you put it) is likely inhabited by those graveyard and brokered time AM signals; however, the big 50 kw blowtorches with solid ratings (like WHAS) are still located within a chip shot of the country club.

But there are markets like DC with no decent AMs, and no AM in the top billers... no AM in the top 10, and only two more between 11 and 20.

LA now has only 2 AMs in the top 20 in billing.

And so on.

In most markets, there is only one AM in the top 10 in billing... meaning FMs have about 90% of the high billing positions, although for sheer number, there are closer to the same number of each in most markets.

 

[DavidEduardo]

David, if you're getting into the MSAs (rather than just the urban core city), then you're going to have an even tougher sell. We have AMs here in Nashville licensed to suburbs because their signal is not strong enough to cover the entire city at night.

Ratings are done for the MSA. There is not even a way to do a true weighted and proportional breakout of the city after which the MSA is named. And that's because advertisers buy markets, not artificial areas based on lines on a map.

 

[BRNout]

But ratings are by MSA. The city size itself only matters to the extent that you are able to serve all of it well. As for your comment about Chicago being compact, that's just silly. The city itself is fairly large and the market extends from cornfields in north central IL to Lake Michigan to the Wisconsin border. It's HUGE and takes hours to drive across!

The AM signals that cover the entire market well include WBBM, WGN, WSCR, WLS, WMVP, and WIND (only 5 kw but at 560). Of those 6 signals, 5 are top 20 billers that outdraw several full market FMs. WBBM and WGN outbill all of them.

Basically, if you have a solid signal and decent format, people will listen. Now, I won't argue the point that - if you moved the format to a full market FM - it would do better on FM. It probably would. That being said, the big AMs in Chicago are generally doing pretty well. Let's just say all of them, including WIND, outdraw the audience for liberal talk on the 3 FM simulcast of WCPT. So it depends on format too.

Now, Chicago isn't alone. The major 50 kw signals in New York (WFAN, WCBS, WABC, WINS) are among the top billers as are KFI and KNX in LA and KGO in San Francisco. And WBZ Boston. And there are other examples that I can list. Again, success here has to do with having a format that appeals to the audience and enough signal to be strong throughout the market.

You cited Nashville. Well, that's a market with horrible ground conductivity and lackluster AM stations. WLAC is a pale companion to the likes of WABC or KFI. And WSM, well that's been beaten to death here. So, perhaps people in Nashville are getting out of the habit of listening to AM. Washington has similar issues with AM signals and poor ground conductivity that Bonneville solved by putting WTOP on FM. That was a good move in that case. I can't speak to the success or failure of AM in Indianapolis except to point out that you can't pick off one example as if that's the template for all markets. It's not. Each market is different. And there are still some small markets where the local AM still dukes it out pretty well with the local FMs which may feature more voice tracking and bird feed.

In summary, I disagree with these generalizations. AM is dead; Chicago is an oddity; blah, blah, blah. That stuff is not universally true. Yeah, graveyard AMs are non-starters. Yes, in some markets, AM is already doing very poorly. But the right AM with the right signal still has a lot of life left in it. And, in many markets, the perennial number one station is still an AMer. Reports of AM's demise are a tad bit premature, in my opinion.

 

[BRNout]

As you can see, the five full-time 50 kw AM signals in the market are all represented in the list with WBBM and WGN taking the top 2 spots. The "slum" (as you put it) is likely inhabited by those graveyard and brokered time AM signals; however, the big 50 kw blowtorches with solid ratings (like WHAS) are still located within a chip shot of the country club.

But there are markets like DC with no decent AMs, and no AM in the top billers... no AM in the top 10, and only two more between 11 and 20.

LA now has only 2 AMs in the top 20 in billing.

And so on.

In most markets, there is only one AM in the top 10 in billing... meaning FMs have about 90% of the high billing positions, although for sheer number, there are closer to the same number of each in most markets.

Washington is a market with no heritage AM station and is located in an area with horrid ground conductivity. Even the 50 kw station doesn't do a good job of covering the market. That's why it's now government radio or some such limited appeal thing. WMAL doesn't do better because its signal doesn't reach the outer suburbs.

But you're cherry picking your examples. The big 50 kw commercial signals in LA both place in the top echelon for billing in a young, heavily Latino market. That's pretty good in my book. Boston, San Francisco, Chicago, Philly and Detroit all have two or more competitive AM stations ratingswise. In Boston's case, perennially strong WEEI doesn't even reach the whole market at night (and honestly NEEDS to simulcast on FM).

Also your statement about most markets having one AM in the top 10 in billing exactly makes MY point (which you may not have read). Which was that a desirable format on a strong marketwide signal will still draw and bill well. Trouble is that most markets only have one example of this anymore. My argument is certainly not in defense of the financial condition of graveyard, dollar a holler, and other fringe AM signals. They are in bad shape and would be a horrible investment.

For the record, my comment followed firepoint's exaggerated statements about how all AM is dead. I disagree. For select AMs, things are still okay. For some, the money still rolls in like mad. If I had my way, the FCC would clean house and get rid of about 2/3 of the stations on the band. That would make things a heck of a lot better for the survivors.

 

[DavidEduardo]

Washington is a market with no heritage AM station and is located in an area with horrid ground conductivity. Even the 50 kw station doesn't do a good job of covering the market. That's why it's now government radio or some such limited appeal thing. WMAL doesn't do better because its signal doesn't reach the outer suburbs.

WMAL spent decades at or near the top. They lost it when the demos aged and they tried to become more relevant to people outside the geezer demos. They lost both groups. WTOP did the right thing... they got out of the bad neighborhood and went to FM and they increased so that they are even #1 or #2 in 18-49 as well as 25-54.

But you're cherry picking your examples.

No, you are picking markets that got good facilities early on. Even when urban sprawl happened after W.W. II, some of them still covered the new metros.

But go to markets that were small in the 30's, like Phoenix. One AM today barely in the Top 10 and one other barely in the Top 20 in billing.

Or go to markets that got shortchanged, like Cleveland and Pittsburgh, where only one AM now covers each market day and night. And you find that the surviving good AM is either declining due to an FM competitor who has taken the sales demos (KDKA's case) or which is the only source for its type of programming (WTAM).

In both cases we see that the issue is demos, and that as each year goes by, AMs are going to lose the ability to attract anyone in the sales demos.

The big 50 kw commercial signals in LA both place in the top echelon for billing in a young, heavily Latino market.

LA's average age is not much different than Minneaplolis. And since most AM listening is over 55, and the over-55 Hispanic population of LA is tiny by comparison, KNX and KFI pretty much have it to themselves among 45+ and 55+ non-Hispanics.

Boston, San Francisco, Chicago, Philly and Detroit all have two or more competitive AM stations ratingswise. In Boston's case, perennially strong WEEI doesn't even reach the whole market at night (and honestly NEEDS to simulcast on FM).

But look at the Miami MSA... Tampa... Orlando... Jacksonville... Birmingham... San Diego... New Orleans... Houston... San Antonio... Austin... Rochester... Grand Rapids... Madison... and many others. Smaller fields of stations in some cases, and generally only one or "one and a half" AMs that are currently succeeding.

Or look at where the talk went to FM, like Chatanooga, or Indianapolis, where AM stations are not in the top tier at all.

And the #1 talk station in Detroit is a sports talker on FM... the days of 760 and 950 are numbered.

Also your statement about most markets having one AM in the top 10 in billing exactly makes MY point (which you may not have read). Which was that a desirable format on a strong marketwide signal will still draw and bill well.

Yet those formats are moving faster and faster to FM or temporary simulcasts. KTAR, KSL, KIRO, WTOP, WOKV, and many many others are migrating or have already moved... or been killed in the sales demos like KDKA... because the age of AM creeps up about a year every 18 months, and the talk format has no hope of survival on that band.

You see, the issue is not AM, it is the one format that has sustained AM, news/talk, and which is moving to FM. Sure, some markets can sustain comfortably an AM sports station... till good sports comes to FM... but there are no other viable formats (considering all news is really a top 10 market exclusive) for AM untill you get to the bottom feeders of niche ethnic and brokered formats, which, of course, can not sustain the band.

For select AMs, things are still okay. For some, the money still rolls in like mad.

Cap'n, it was just an iceberg. We know the ship is unsinkable.

The money is declining (KGO off 33% in last 8 years) and the costs are high.

 

[DavidEduardo]

That being said, the big AMs in Chicago are generally doing pretty well.

WGN, were it not for the Cubs, would be in trouble. In 25-54, outside ball season, it's around 20th.

And that, in a single example, is what is wrong with AM overall. One really good format, but which does not get the 35-54 audience it is due because 35-54s for the most part don't like AM, don't use AM and think AM is not cool or nice to listen to. Move that format to FM, and they come in droves... as WIBC, KIRO, KTAR, KSL and many, many others have shown.

 

[Icangelp]

I guess I'd better not buy that Perseus SDR. :'(

 

[mleach]

Washington is a market with no heritage AM station and is located in an area with horrid ground conductivity. Even the 50 kw station doesn't do a good job of covering the market. That's why it's now government radio or some such limited appeal thing. WMAL doesn't do better because its signal doesn't reach the outer suburbs.

WMAL spent decades at or near the top. They lost it when the demos aged and they tried to become more relevant to people outside the geezer demos. They lost both groups.

You are right about WMAL, actually when it came to morning drive WMAL WAS THE TOP for over 30 years !! Thanks to the team of Frank Harden & Jackson Weaver and I believe they were number one in that morning slot beginning in 1960 and sadly that ended with Weaver's death in 1992.

Also WMAL was the long time home for the Washington Redskins plus for years their sister was Washington's channel 7 and WMAL for many years was an ABC o/o too.

WMAL-AM 630 was doing quite well for themselves back in those days.

 

[BRNout]

Washington is a market with no heritage AM station and is located in an area with horrid ground conductivity. Even the 50 kw station doesn't do a good job of covering the market. That's why it's now government radio or some such limited appeal thing. WMAL doesn't do better because its signal doesn't reach the outer suburbs.

WMAL spent decades at or near the top. They lost it when the demos aged and they tried to become more relevant to people outside the geezer demos. They lost both groups.

You are right about WMAL, actually when it came to morning drive WMAL WAS THE TOP for over 30 years !! Thanks to the team of Frank Harden & Jackson Weaver and I believe they were number one in that morning slot beginning in 1960 and sadly that ended with Weaver's death in 1992.

Also WMAL was the long time home for the Washington Redskins plus for years their sister was Washington's channel 7 and WMAL for many years was an ABC o/o too.

WMAL-AM 630 was doing quite well for themselves back in those days.

OK, I'd like to address David's comments point by point - but haven't got the time to do it today. However, I'd like to address one of them as that's his statements about the Washington, DC market. Mleach's comments dovetail nicely with this.

WMAL was number one back in the day. Back when the audience was younger. AND, back when their P1s lived in or near the beltway. Back when Fairfax County was considered the outer suburbs. Now, a good chunk of WMAL's P1s live in places like Loudoun County, far south on the way to Fredricksburg, outer Maryland burbs in northern and western Montgomery County. A lot of the key listeners for WMAL's conservative talk format have moved outward. Outward to places where WMAL's lackluster signal doesn't penetrate well. Yes, you can get them - but with lots of noise. I remember when Fairfax City was considered waaay out west. No more, now it's 3/4 of the way in to work for a lot of people.

In other words, David and all, the DC market outgrew their allotted AMs. So yes, DC is a 'cherry picked' market that's chosen to make the 'AM is dead' point. AM is NOT dead. It has lots of problems but isn't dead yet. That's not to say that it won't or can't die. Then again that's true for all of us and the last I checked, we aren't dead yet either. I maintain that firepoint's dismissive "AM is dead" comment to the poster who said that WHAS does well is wrong. That was my original point and I stick by it. Some still do well.

It could even be saved if the FCC had the courage to do the right thing and clear the clutter. Sadly, only stupid money bets on the FCC to be courageous about anything....

As for the rest of the discussion, I'll have to hit it later because I am up against a hard break....

 

[KeithE4]

That being said, the big AMs in Chicago are generally doing pretty well.

WGN, were it not for the Cubs, would be in trouble. In 25-54, outside ball season, it's around 20th.

This has been the case for over 20 years if not longer. WGN has always been Aunt Edna in Palatine's station, except for sports.

And that, in a single example, is what is wrong with AM overall. One really good format, but which does not get the 35-54 audience it is due because 35-54s for the most part don't like AM, don't use AM and think AM is not cool or nice to listen to. Move that format to FM, and they come in droves... as WIBC, KIRO, KTAR, KSL and many, many others have shown.

In the case of WGN, the Tribune Company is not allowed to own an FM station in Chicago without selling either WGN-TV or AM. That's been the case since 1970, when the FCC forced them to donate WFMT to WTTW after purchasing it a couple of years earlier (They had also owned WGNB in the '40s and '50s). They're pretty much stuck on 720.

As to why folks under 60 don't listen to AM anymore, I have one theory: How does one stuff an AM antenna into a modern personal electronic device (iPod, cellphone, etc.)? Those that have an FM tuner barely have a usable antenna, and it's usually one side of the earphone cord. AM tuner chips exist (and, in fact, probably exist in a small-enough size), but an antenna large enough to work on that band is just not practical anymore.

Not only that, but the noise generated by the devices themselves would probably obliterate most the the AM band anyway. These devices just cannot have AM - there's no practical way to do it even if there was a demand for it.

 

[DavidEduardo]

WMAL was number one back in the day. Back when the audience was younger. AND, back when their P1s lived in or near the beltway. Back when Fairfax County was considered the outer suburbs.

As recently as 1994, WMAL was overall 12+ #4 in the market after WMZQ, WPGC and WRQX; it was very close to two of those three, as well. It was, as posted, the end of the very successful morning show that threw the station into turmoil... as well as the slow erosion of the sales demos.

Still nearly 75% of the 12+ population lives in just three counties and DC, and a density analysis shows that most of the additional population lives in the nearest parts of the outer counties. And the day signal pretty well covers all of this... since nights represents so little of the PPM audience, that is not particularly relevant.

WMAL declined due to the decline in AM listening by under-55's and the programming decisions that tried to make the format more relative to under-55's which, of course, don't work anywhere.

I remember when Fairfax City was considered waaay out west. No more, now it's 3/4 of the way in to work for a lot of people.

I worked in Fairfax, the city, in 1970 and it was most definitely part of the metro. Manassas was considered "far out".

I maintain that firepoint's dismissive "AM is dead" comment to the poster who said that WHAS does well is wrong. That was my original point and I stick by it. Some still do well.

The most recognized source on radio valuation and billing states that there are less than an average of 2 viable AMs in each of the top 100 markets, vs. about 12 or more FMs that are viable. But beyond the ability of so few AMs to compete, the audience below age 50 to 55 simply does not use AM, save a few rare... and sports related... exceptions.