WCBS #1 18-34

[Theater of My Mind]

You keep saying that without any documented evidence.

If you're going to challenge what I say then you're the one who needs to show up with documentation, not me.
I'm not going around in circles with you about this again.

 

[TheBigA]

If you're going to challenge what I say then you're the one who needs to show up with documentation, not me.

You refuse to accept the documentation on this issue, and you said so in your post:

There are a couple of people in this forum who constantly sugarcoat any negative point about radio's future and continue to quote statistics about radio listening by young people today that are frankly not believable.

So you don't believe the facts because they don't confirm your opinion. That's not how this works. If you don't believe the facts, then present some of your own. I think it's possible that perhaps a small percentage of the younger listening is accidental. But that's about it.

 

[DavidEduardo]

You keep saying that without any documented evidence.

And one thing is to be "detected" by the PPM of a person making a 10 minute stop in a bodega in NYC, giving a station a single quarter hour of credit... and the many hour average time spent listening that the stations being discussed get from the average listener.

 

[DavidEduardo]

If you're going to challenge what I say then you're the one who needs to show up with documentation, not me.
I'm not going around in circles with you about this again.

If you were a Nielsen subscriber you would see that well over 80% of 18-34's use radio in the average week and nearly 90% of those in 25-54 do (it varies by market, brought down by the weight that very large New York has on averages).

The biggest impact on Time Spent Listening in the last two decades is not streaming and Sirius/XM. It is the PPM which showed that actual listening, precise to the minute, was about 35% less than we saw in the diary. And since well over two-thirds of rated market population lives in a PPM market, that change influences all radio averages, too.

The PPM began in almost exactly the same year as the smartphone. So many people confuse radio listening changes due to methodology with just the effects of streaming. It is not so.

And... anyway... since radio sells impressions, not reach, advertisers will decide if the medium as a whole... which reaches over 85% of the adult population weekly... is of value to them.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

But as they age. their interest in new music will wane, along with their extra time to create their own playlists. Then it becomes a decision of who gives them the songs they like in a cheap and easy way.

This was certainly true when young people were creating mixtapes by splicing cassettes or burning CDs. With programmatic playlists today, I don't think it provides radio the same advantage for busy people that it used to.

At the same time, these companies are creating original content that isn't dependent on music. That content can be delivered across multiple platformed, and monetized in other ways. That is the future of radio and radio companies.

There are only two (English-language) radio companies who have any hope in a streaming world: iHeart and Audacy, and one of those is flailing. The vast majority of radio companies don't have a streaming strategy, much less a product.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

The biggest impact on Time Spent Listening in the last two decades is not streaming and Sirius/XM. It is the PPM which showed that actual listening, precise to the minute, was about 35% less than we saw in the diary. And since well over two-thirds of rated market population lives in a PPM market, that change influences all radio averages, too.

In 1999, Arbitron found persons 18-34 used just over 21 hours of radio a week: https://worldradiohistory.com/Archive-Arbitron/Archive-Arbitron-Radio-Today/RadioToday-1999.pdf (page 5)
If we take your number for the PPM's effect, that gets us to about 13.5 hours a week of "real" listening in 1999.

TSL in the 18-34 demo is 6 hours a week today, as you mentioned earlier in this thread, that is a decline of 72% from Arbitron's reported 1999 levels, which would make new media competition slightly more impactful than the PPM conversion.

 

[TheBigA]

There are only two (English-language) radio companies who have any hope in a streaming world: iHeart and Audacy, and one of those is flailing. The vast majority of radio companies don't have a streaming strategy, much less a product.

Streaming is only one outlet for radio companies. It is the most expensive, with the lowest profit margin. Podcasting, on the other hand, can be very profitable, and quite a few radio companies are invested there. The Townsquare model also appears to be working very well for them. So there are other options for radio companies besides towers and transmitters,

 

[DavidEduardo]

In 1999, Arbitron found persons 18-34 used just over 21 hours of radio a week:

In the diary, averaging over 200 markets.

If we take your number for the PPM's effect, that gets us to about 13.5 hours a week of "real" listening in 1999.

By 2009, changes in methodology for the diary showed average listening of 18 to 19 hours, depending on the book. In the first year of the PPM, it was 11 to 12 hours. Those changes in the early 2000's were done to better measure Hispanic and Black listeners.

Remember, when looking at PPM the huge NYC market just by itself can change averages. Because of the high use of public transportation in NYC, drive time listening there has always been much lower than anywhere else.

TSL in the 18-34 demo is 6 hours a week today, as you mentioned earlier in this thread, that is a decline of 72% from Arbitron's reported 1999 levels, which would make new media competition slightly more impactful than the PPM conversion.

But more than 2/3 of the decline is due to methodology, not actual listening. Radio is still a huge mass medium due to reach. And, if you consider that much streaming is not ad supported, it makes radio the best way to get adds across a broad spectrum at a low cost.

On the other hand, inflation adjusted ad revenues are around 35% of the Y2K level in radio. So the money available for programming and promotion is vastly changed.

 

[DavidEduardo]

The Townsquare model also appears to be working very well for them. So there are other options for radio companies besides towers and transmitters,

But the Townsquare model works in smaller markets where clients have no agency and agency buys are not a major revenue source. Townsquare essentially gives agency services that include radio and new media, but that system does not apply in larger markets.