September Ratings?

[MarkW]

It's been discussed here many times, and such a move would drive up the median age of the cluster. Once again, the goal is money, not ratings.

There are plenty of Classic Hits stations out there with healthy money demo numbers and impressive billings. WCBS-FM, KRTH, WOMC, WOGL, KCMO-FM, WMJI, WGRR. KXSN, WRBQ, etc.

Granted, there are also some out there with disappointing revenue figures. I haven't seen billing data for WLS-FM in Chicago in a while, but I recall them being a perennial poor biller. In the past 18 months, that station has witnessed substantial ratings gains, so I'm not sure if the above statement still applies.

 

[TheBigA]

There are plenty of Classic Hits stations out there with healthy money demo numbers and impressive billings. WCBS-FM, KRTH, WOMC, WOGL, KCMO-FM, WMJI, WGRR. KXSN, WRBQ, etc.

First of all, to get better billings, those stations have moved most of their music into the range of Cox's The River, so a lot of that music is already being played in Atlanta. Secondly, you may want to check the latest financials on those Entercom stations, because last I saw, their revenues aren't as impressive as they once were.

 

[MarkW]

How many non-urban stations in Atlanta play Michael Jackson, Paula Abdul, Madonna, Soft Cell, Kool & The Gang, Mariah Carey, Phil Collins, Sting, Stevie Wonder, Prince, Roxette, Depeche Mode, Duran Duran, Club Nuveau, Rod Stewart, Huey Lewis, etc. ?

I suspect many of those artists are underrepresented on Atlanta radio. There certainly isn't a single station that plays the majority of them.

Also, 97.1 The River seldom plays any 90's material. A fair number of Classic Hits stations are dabbling in the 90's substantially these days.

B98.5's positioning statement is a complete sham! 80's, 90's, Now? Probably 80% of their playlist consists of songs from 2000 or later! Going back to 11 A.M. this morning, I didn't see a single 1980's song on the music log, and I saw only a few pre-1995 songs.

Given the fact Atlanta's AC station is very uptempo and modern and 97.1 The River is pretty much a straight-ahead classic rock station, I see plenty of room for a Classic Hits or Adult Hits station to work.

 

[CTListener]

How many non-urban stations in Atlanta play Michael Jackson, Paula Abdul, Madonna, Soft Cell, Kool & The Gang, Mariah Carey, Phil Collins, Sting, Stevie Wonder, Prince, Roxette, Depeche Mode, Duran Duran, Club Nuveau, Rod Stewart, Huey Lewis, etc. ?

Why would urban stations be playing most of these acts? Phil Collins' solo work has not aged well at all. For every listener who wants to hear "Sussudio" or "Take Me Home" in 2019, there are 10 who don't. Ditto Duran Duran and Huey Lewis. Most of their songs sound cheesy to many listeners who are too young to have experienced them as hits in their prime musical taste-forming years. As has been explained many times in this thread and others, the people who want to hear "Tainted Love" and "Hungry Like the Wolf" are mostly in their 50s now, with some even in their 60s. For whatever reason, true classic rock from the '80s (U2, for example) and even earlier decades connects with younger demos in a way that the pop of those decades doesn't. Play "Easy Lover" and "Do You Believe in Love" at your peril, because you're going to lure more geezers than you or your advertisers want listening.

 

[TheBigA]

I suspect many of those artists are underrepresented on Atlanta radio. There certainly isn't a single station that plays the majority of them.

You keep focusing on songs and artists, and I keep telling you that this will not be a programming decision, It will be based on sales. I doubt the programming people will even get brought in until after the decision is made. They aren't looking for format holes. They're not looking to play songs that aren't being played. If they had, Cumulus would have flipped 106.7 to some form of classic hits 3 years ago. You need to find that format that will beat $200K a month.

 

[LegalTender]

For whatever reason, true classic rock from the '80s (U2, for example) and even earlier decades connects with younger demos in a way that the pop of those decades doesn't. Play "Easy Lover" and "Do You Believe in Love" at your peril, because you're going to lure more geezers than you or your advertisers want listening.

Helps explain why "adult album alternative" WXRT Chicago is successful. Compresses the demos.

 

[DavidEduardo]

Helps explain why "adult album alternative" WXRT Chicago is successful. Compresses the demos.

Not really.

WXRT is 3rd in 36-64 but 17th in 18-34. It's core is 45-64.

 

[MarkW]

Why would urban stations be playing most of these acts?

They wouldn't. I did mention a few Urban AC-type artists, though, in my list. That is the only reason I included that qualifier. Caucasian listeners are unlikely to spend any appreciable time with Kiss 104.1, etc.

The point I was clumsily trying to make is - there are plenty of mainstream artists that are being ignored by the radio stations Caucasian listeners are most likely to cume in the Atlanta metro.

You keep focusing on songs and artists, and I keep telling you that this will not be a programming decision, It will be based on sales.

I understand that. I gave you a lengthy list of large & major market stations that perform very well in the revenue arena. $200k per month should not be terribly difficult to beat. Frankly, $200k per month is a low standard in a market with as much advertising revenue in play as Atlanta. I've offered two options where significant upside exists - Urban and Classic Hits / Adult Hits.

I suspect Fault 105.7 persists in part due to iHeart's strategic initiatives on a national level. They are really pushing Alternative (i.e. wannabe pop music) product, tying it in with their live events division, etc.

Alt has no upside, its adherents are largely abandoning traditional radio (that trend will only magnify with time), and if 105.7's ratings remain in current territory for a prolonged period, I think it's very likely revenue will take a major hit.

The 35 - 54 Caucasian listener in Atlanta is underserved by the music offerings on the FM dial. I think an AC station with a much broader library than B98.5, Classic Hits or Adult Hits station could do very well in that segment. Could you imagine removing WLS-FM, Lite 93.9 and WSHE 100.3 from Chicago concurrently? Or WOGL, B101.1 and Ben-FM from Philly? Or KLUV, Jack FM, and Star 102.1 from Dallas? How about Warm 94.9 and Q105 from Tampa? The voids would be gigantic!!! Yes, the ATL is likely younger - in some cases substantially so - and less "white" than most or all of those metro areas, but this serves to illustrate the opportunity that does exist!

 

[DavidEduardo]

T

The point I was clumsily trying to make is - there are plenty of mainstream artists that are being ignored by the radio stations Caucasian listeners are most likely to cume in the Atlanta metro.

Those artists are not being ignored.

Atlanta is a big market. Stations do music research. If a song other wise fits a station's format (era, style, genre) but is not being played, it's because it did not "pass" the music test.

I understand that. I gave you a lengthy list of large & major market stations that perform very well in the revenue arena. $200k per month should not be terribly difficult to beat. Frankly, $200k per month is a low standard in a market with as much advertising revenue in play as Atlanta. I've offered two options where significant upside exists - Urban and Classic Hits / Adult Hits.

A bad signal Urban is going to be last among at least 5 stations, and no format gets bought five deep. That won't work.

And, as BigA suggested, classic hits leans old, and that would swing the cluster old for combo buys. The current format is perfect for the signal.

I suspect Fault 105.7 persists in part due to iHeart's strategic initiatives on a national level. They are really pushing Alternative (i.e. wannabe pop music) product, tying it in with their live events division, etc.

iHeart is the most profitable radio company based on EBITDA, so there is no need to use demeaning names for them and their properties. But you are right: they are trying to move away from pure over the air plays to events, artists, podcasts and streams. The concert and event business is where they have both growth and good margins.

Alt has no upside, its adherents are largely abandoning traditional radio (that trend will only magnify with time), and if 105.7's ratings remain in current territory for a prolonged period, I think it's very likely revenue will take a major hit.

But Alt really has no downside for the moment, particularly if it is generating non-tranditional revenue. And there are plenty of well performing Alternative stations, so one can not say that the format is rapidly losing listeners. Sure, they may not be #1 in rank, but they are good compliments to many clusters nationally.

 

[LegalTender]

Not really.

WXRT is 3rd in 36-64 but 17th in 18-34. It's core is 45-64.

My point was that WXRT's playlist "connects with younger demos in a way that the pop of those decades doesn't. Play "Easy Lover" and "Do You Believe in Love" at your peril." I'm unable to disprove that, though my research is less than rigorous.

 

[CTListener]

My point was that WXRT's playlist "connects with younger demos in a way that the pop of those decades doesn't. Play "Easy Lover" and "Do You Believe in Love" at your peril." I'm unable to disprove that, though my research is less than rigorous.

I was comparing old pop hits to old rock hits. More 18-34s appreciate classic rock than pop -- not that a majority of 18-34s listen only to old music, far from it, but their appreciation of Led Zeppelin and AC/DC is far greater than their appreciation of Paula Abdul and Huey Lewis & the News. I'd be curious to see how Chicago's pure classic rock station, WDRV, compares to WXRT among 18-34s. I'm sure that in the beauty pageant numbers it skews somewhat older, but I wonder if there are more ears out there in 18-34 for yesterday's guitar legends than for yesterday's lightweight pop.

 

[LegalTender]

I was comparing old pop hits to old rock hits. More 18-34s appreciate classic rock than pop -- not that a majority of 18-34s listen only to old music, far from it, but their appreciation of Led Zeppelin and AC/DC is far greater than their appreciation of Paula Abdul and Huey Lewis & the News. I'd be curious to see how Chicago's pure classic rock station, WDRV, compares to WXRT among 18-34s. I'm sure that in the beauty pageant numbers it skews somewhat older, but I wonder if there are more ears out there in 18-34 for yesterday's guitar legends than for yesterday's lightweight pop.

KCFX Kansas City may exemplify that. Promos claim "#1 for 25-54 for multiple years running" and pulled a 10.3 (6+) in the September book. Playlist is anything but lightweight pop. Granted, the same scheme could bomb in Seattle.

 

[MarkW]

iHeart is the most profitable radio company based on EBITDA, so there is no need to use demeaning names for them and their properties

Sirius XM's financial performance is much stronger than that of iHeart. Sirius XM has shown impressive EBITDA growth over the past five years. For iHeart, they're lucky to rise a small amount year-over-year after removal of nonrecurring items such as impairment charges.

Not only is SXM's raw EBITDA stronger than that of iHeart but its EBITDA margin is also significantly stronger than that of iHeart.

iHeart has treated a ton of great air talent like garbage over the past 15 years, and the name "iHeart" is insipid. So, I think I'm well within my rights to use 'iHeart" in reference to them.

Coincidentally, iHeart doesn't like to refer to itself as a "radio company." Cannot blame them for wanting to distance themselves from a medium they've helped gut!!!

 

[CTListener]

iHeart has treated a ton of great air talent like garbage over the past 15 years, and the name "iHeart" is insipid. So, I think I'm well within my rights to use 'iHeart" in reference to them.

If they sue you, do you want to be tried as an adult or a juvenile?

 

[MarkW]

If they sue you, do you want to be tried as an adult or a juvenile?

I don't know. What do you recommend? LOL

 

[TheBigA]

Sirius XM's financial performance is much stronger than that of iHeart.

Comparing apples and oranges. Sirius is a subscription company. Sirius isn't a whole lot better in its treatment of people. Ask The Turtles how they feel about Sirius. The music industry has taken them to court several times for various infractions, and they run a lot of their channels host-free.

 

[MarkW]

Indeed, the two business models are apples & oranges.

Sirius XM's business model is superior. So is their content, IMO. (Audio quality remains a pet peeve, but it's acceptable more often than not on the channels I use.)

I will say this, though - Sirius XM's decision to acquire Pandora for $3.5B in an all-stock deal was STUPID. The synergies are questionable and worth nowhere near that much. Really destroyed a lot of value for SXM's incumbent shareholders. At least Mr. Malone & company were wise enough not to do the Pandora takeover as an LBO!

SXM could've waited a year or two and gotten Pandora for a lower price, and if the deal never occurred - no big deal. SXM was performing fine as-is.

By the way, over the past decade on the channels I frequent (mostly the hard rock channels), I cannot think of a single SXM personality who has left involuntarily off the top of my head. Lou Brutus might be a possible exception, but he really never had more than a couple toes in the satellite radio pool. With time, I've heard more dayparts feature DJs, not fewer. Lithium used to be 100% DJ free, same with its counterpart ("Lucy") on pre-merger XM. Now, that channel has multiple dayparts with hosts. The same is also true of 90's on 9.

 

[DavidEduardo]

I will say this, though - Sirius XM's decision to acquire Pandora for $3.5B in an all-stock deal was STUPID. The synergies are questionable and worth nowhere near that much. Really destroyed a lot of value for SXM's incumbent shareholders. At least Mr. Malone & company were wise enough not to do the Pandora takeover as an LBO!

Sirius knows that the shelf life of poorer quality satellite delivered radio is coming to an end.

New dashboard options are based on streaming, and the rollout of 5g is the final act of satellite.

XM wants access to homes and offices and portable use; mobile devices using streaming do this. 5g will do it better.

The problem for XM is that, as consumers, we want to have one preferred paid audio source we can use in the car, while working out, at work and in the home. Right now, XM is really only available in one platform; Pandora gives a huge consumer base to XM for its transformation into a streaming company.

And streaming obviates a future cycle of satellite replacements at several hundred million a pop.

 

[TheBigA]

Sirius XM's decision to acquire Pandora for $3.5B in an all-stock deal was STUPID. The synergies are questionable and worth nowhere near that much. Really destroyed a lot of value for SXM's incumbent shareholders.

Well I'm a shareholder, and actually the stock is holding up fairly well. In fact it's near a 52 week high. But I was not a fan of buying Pandora because there's no money in streaming. Sirius feels they can negotiate a better deal with the labels now by combining the two companies. I don't think they can.

Right now, XM is really only available in one platform; Pandora gives a huge consumer base to XM for its transformation into a streaming company.

I think that's still a long way off for them.

 

[DavidEduardo]

I think that's still a long way off for them.

But it fits with the estimated lifespan of the satellites.

While the streaming model does not work for pureplays, adapting Pandora to the XM model would be profitable. What they are buying is a brand and a huge customer base.