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Ratings/Bad News for Talent

R

ripvanwinkle

Inactive
Inactive User
I just got off the phone with a friend at JACK in Denver
and in Dallas. Both stations had horrible trends. Dallas
lost almost half of their audience in the month of April.
The longest running JACK stations in America had horrible trends
and are dying, but at both celebrations. Why, I asked? In
Denver and Dallas both stations made money for the first time
in years, lot's of money. You see they have no staff, no air
talent, no promotions, no part-time and in one case no PD. It
is the ultimate money machine. Then I thought of my new home,
Seattle. KJR-FM fires its morning show, automates most shifts
and has record ratings. Soft AC's, which are virtually automated
or liner jocks at best dominate ratings across America, KRWM is
now a market leader, not just during Christmas. Now JACK Country
is debuting and there is talk of one of the last remaining
personality adult stations in this market moving that direction.
The sad part of all of this is the story in Denver, Atlanta (DAVE)
and Dallas. These automated stations get initial ratings, then
fall in the ratings BUT longterm they generate big dollars because
they cost nothing to run. A corporate dream, a talent's nightmare.
I was stunned to see KRQI's personality station go away, more
stunned that KLSY's all personality AC station is dropping like a
rock. JACK Country and JACK may not be the ratings answer, but
they are the money answer. That is sad.
 
You are correct on all counts. Miller Kaplan numbers
for Denver and Dallas show both stations up marginally
in billing. Assuming their cost of operation is nil,
that would mean record profit. KJR-FM and KRQI both
do not bill in the top ten in Seattle, but if they
cost nothing to run, they could easily make more money
than a KIRO or KZOK with very high talent costs.

Your perspective is interesting. The game after all is
not ratings, but gross profit after expenses, depreciation
and taxes. If a station like KZOK bills 12 million, but
costs 9 to run, it is no better than KJR-FM that bills
five million, but costs 2 to run. In the end both return
three million in profit, yet the margin on KJR-FM is 60%!
Automation wins. JACK does not need to rate or even bill
at the top of the market, just give a great return. I bet
KLSY is looking at this JACK Country option and I bet other
stations are looking at the effectivness of automation.
Best post I've seen in a while, made me think twice about JACK.
 
> You are correct on all counts. Miller Kaplan numbers
> for Denver and Dallas show both stations up marginally
> in billing. Assuming their cost of operation is nil,
> that would mean record profit. KJR-FM and KRQI both
> do not bill in the top ten in Seattle, but if they
> cost nothing to run, they could easily make more money
> than a KIRO or KZOK with very high talent costs.
>
> Your perspective is interesting. The game after all is
> not ratings, but gross profit after expenses, depreciation
> and taxes. If a station like KZOK bills 12 million, but
> costs 9 to run, it is no better than KJR-FM that bills
> five million, but costs 2 to run. In the end both return
> three million in profit, yet the margin on KJR-FM is 60%!
> Automation wins. JACK does not need to rate or even bill
> at the top of the market, just give a great return. I bet
> KLSY is looking at this JACK Country option and I bet other
> stations are looking at the effectivness of automation.
> Best post I've seen in a while, made me think twice about
> JACK.
>
I agree with all this except for the operating costs of KZOK.It seems that while they may pay people pretty good at Infinity, a few DJ's and a bunch old Rock CD's cant cost that much.Same goes for KMPS except they have Country CD's.Both stations have no big Newsrooms, no Traffic Copters, no big Sports broadcast contracts, and no big marketing expenses. They buy Coffee,pay rent and pay the power bill.That can't add up to nine million.Since KZOK and KMPS are always near the top in billing and Jack and Air America cost nothing to run
these guys must be making money by the dumpster full.
 
> I just got off the phone with a friend at JACK in Denver
> I was stunned to see KRQI's personality station go away,
> more
> stunned that KLSY's all personality AC station is dropping
> like a
> rock.

KLSY is a HOT AC not an AC and its numbers are on the way up, it is performing WAY better than it was 7 months ago.
>
 
KRWM
> is
> now a market leader, not just during Christmas.

Whoops! One minor correction...the reason KRWM EVEN MADE the top 10, oh so magically and recently, is because when they took Delilah ALL OF THE SUDDEN KRWM was a top 10 player.

If you refer to KRWM pre Delilah, they were NOT top 10.

JACK may work as a profit by cost cutting formula, but it will not be enough in the long term when every 13 year old has a pocket MP3 player with 10,000 songs on it that does the same thing...no comercials to boot.
 
It's about the MONEY, HONEY!

> I agree with all this except for the operating costs of
> KZOK.It seems that while they may pay people pretty good at
> Infinity, a few DJ's and a bunch old Rock CD's cant cost
> that much. Same goes for KMPS except they have Country CD's.

Are ya smokin crack? KZOK has a full blown 5 person morning show (counting their news chick and producer) as well as a huge "street team" promotions department. I'm sure Slayton and Ricker are in the $75K+ ballpark too.

And do you think Ichabod is pulling down less than 6 figures all by himself?

Look at tiny KKNW and their brokered shows. They NEVER appear in the ratings, but selling time at $250-$400 an hour for programming, and switching on CNN Headline News the rest of the time, you can bet they are making a nice chunk of change.

Ratings DO NOT *always* EQUAL revenue! And REVENUE is the prime directive.

Why are people going to iPods, XM and Sirius for their music? Commercials are a factor, but they're also tired of the blather and promotional hype. If a JACK-type station can pull in the listeners, who needs personalities?

We've already seen KJR-FM pull off mornings with decent ratings with NO personality. I think the days are gone where personalities drive ratings and revenue at every station.
 
> Whoops! One minor correction...the reason KRWM EVEN MADE the
> top 10, oh so magically and recently, is because when they
> took Delilah ALL OF THE SUDDEN KRWM was a top 10 player.
>
> If you refer to KRWM pre Delilah, they were NOT top 10.

Really? "Magically and recently?" Tell us when Delilah debuted on Warm.
 
I agree with all this except for the operating costs of
> KZOK.It seems that while they may pay people pretty good at
> Infinity, a few DJ's and a bunch old Rock CD's cant cost
> that much.Same goes for KMPS except they have Country
> CD's.Both stations have no big Newsrooms, no Traffic
> Copters, no big Sports broadcast contracts, and no big
> marketing expenses. They buy Coffee,pay rent and pay the
> power bill.That can't add up to nine million.Since KZOK and
> KMPS are always near the top in billing and Jack and Air
> America cost nothing to run
> these guys must be making money by the dumpster full.

They spend a LOT of money on marketing. And research.

But you are right, they're making plenty of money.
 
> I just got off the phone with a friend at JACK in Denver
> and in Dallas. Both stations had horrible trends.

Really? Denver Jack went up .2 12+



Dallas
> lost almost half of their audience in the month of April.

Dallas Jack lost .2 12+, a little thin to have lost "half their audience," don't you think?

How do you figure?
 
> > Whoops! One minor correction...the reason KRWM EVEN MADE
> the
> > top 10, oh so magically and recently, is because when they
>
> > took Delilah ALL OF THE SUDDEN KRWM was a top 10 player.
> >
> > If you refer to KRWM pre Delilah, they were NOT top 10.
>
> Really? "Magically and recently?" Tell us when Delilah
> debuted on Warm.
>

In 99 or 2000. They weren't top 10 then, months later, they started moving up. I know, I was there watching the papers.
 
Re: It's about the MONEY, HONEY!

> We've already seen KJR-FM pull off mornings with decent
> ratings with NO personality. I think the days are gone where
> personalities drive ratings and revenue at every station.
>
One wonders if KJR's recent jump isn't due to Cashman leaving and JACK coming on the scene? They haven't changed that much.
 
> > > Whoops! One minor correction...the reason KRWM EVEN MADE
>
> > the
> > > top 10, oh so magically and recently, is because when
> they
> >
> > > took Delilah ALL OF THE SUDDEN KRWM was a top 10 player.
>
> > >
> > > If you refer to KRWM pre Delilah, they were NOT top 10.
> >
> > Really? "Magically and recently?" Tell us when Delilah
> > debuted on Warm.
> >
>
> In 99 or 2000. They weren't top 10 then, months later, they
> started moving up. I know, I was there watching the papers.

Newspapers or toilet papers?

I'm still chuckling over "magically and recently." Five to six years ago?!?! Heh. That's a good one.

She signed on earlier than "99 or 2000." Years earlier than that.
 
You are thinking KLSY maybe? Not KRWM. KRWM took Delilah after she became syndicated, not back in the 80s grandpa.

By papers I mean industry ratings and office paperwork. You know, that stuff you see IN THE BUSINESS.

Yeah, chuckle on. 5 to 6 years is NOT that long ago. If you want to talk about long time ratings, then you speak of KIRO or KMPS, who are not "recent wonders" in the Arbitron history. Whereas KRWM IS.

Get over it chuckles boy.

> Newspapers or toilet papers?
>
> I'm still chuckling over "magically and recently." Five to
> six years ago?!?! Heh. That's a good one.
>
> She signed on earlier than "99 or 2000." Years earlier than
> that.
>
 
> How do you figure?

Sorry, should have been more specific. In the
March and April extraps Dallas JACK has lost 1/2 of
its numbers. In Denver, the same pattern. I
was not speaking of 12+, though in March and April
Dallas took a beating there too.

The point is the stations are making more money
than ever before, WITHOUT TALENT. OUCH!
 
Don't be so sure. Here are the ballpark figures:
KZOK bills 12 million:
30% in sales/agency commissions,
20% in admin/engineering/capital
Now you are at six million:
2.5 million (or more) for the Rivers Show
1.5 million for the rest of the staff, promotions
programming, advertising, research and guess what?
you make 2 million.

JACK-FM bills 6 million:
30% in sales/agency commissions
20% in admin/engineering/capital
Now you are at three million:
200K for part-time PD and national playlist
500K in advertising for the year and throw in 200K ASCAP/BMI
you make more money than KZOK with half the billing.

Welcome to the world of business. RipVanWinkle hit it on the
head. JACK is a low ratings, but low risk way to make big money.
No wonder Infinity and Entercomm are blowing up successful solid
gold stations. This makes more money! Talent may be on the way
out, for now.
 
blah blah blah. If we want a friggin accounting
class on this Board Dan we would have enrolled in
CIty U. Blah blah blah...
 
Re: It's about the MONEY, HONEY!

> Are ya smokin crack? KZOK has a full blown 5 person morning
> show (counting their news chick and producer) as well as a
> huge "street team" promotions department. I'm sure Slayton
> and Ricker are in the $75K+ ballpark too.


I think we are mixed up here... KZOK has a six person morning team including their 2 producers... KISW has the huge street team... Slaton is afternoons at KZOK... Ricker is afternoons at KISW... I'm sure Slaton (Mr Seattle rock and roll) is making a ton more money than Ricker... hope that clears up any confusion...
 
Re: It's about the MONEY, HONEY!

> I think we are mixed up here...

You're right. Sorry, got confused. Maybe I'M smokin crack?
 
> I just got off the phone with a friend at JACK in Denver
> and in Dallas. Both stations had horrible trends. Dallas
> lost almost half of their audience in the month of April.
> The longest running JACK stations in America had horrible
> trends
> and are dying, but at both celebrations. Why, I asked? In
> Denver and Dallas both stations made money for the first
> time
> in years, lot's of money. You see they have no staff, no
> air
> talent, no promotions, no part-time and in one case no PD.
> It
> is the ultimate money machine. Then I thought of my new
> home,
> Seattle. KJR-FM fires its morning show, automates most
> shifts
> and has record ratings. Soft AC's, which are virtually
> automated
> or liner jocks at best dominate ratings across America, KRWM
> is
> now a market leader, not just during Christmas. Now JACK
> Country
> is debuting and there is talk of one of the last remaining
> personality adult stations in this market moving that
> direction.
> The sad part of all of this is the story in Denver, Atlanta
> (DAVE)
> and Dallas. These automated stations get initial ratings,
> then
> fall in the ratings BUT longterm they generate big dollars
> because
> they cost nothing to run. A corporate dream, a talent's
> nightmare.
> I was stunned to see KRQI's personality station go away,
> more
> stunned that KLSY's all personality AC station is dropping
> like a
> rock. JACK Country and JACK may not be the ratings answer,
> but
> they are the money answer. That is sad.
>



One thing that you have to keep in mind is that billing lags behind ratings!!! The Jacks in Dallas and Denver are billing because of how good the ratings were a few months ago. If they can't keep the numbers up, the billing will fall.

Also, the gap between high and low billing stations is in the millions! A high billing station can have a full airstaff, full promotions, etc and still make millions of dollars more in profit per year than a autmomated station with low revenue. So I see it much different, If the Jack stations are peaking out in ratings already, it is good news for talent.
 
> Don't be so sure. Here are the ballpark figures:
> KZOK bills 12 million:
> 30% in sales/agency commissions,
> 20% in admin/engineering/capital
> Now you are at six million:
> 2.5 million (or more) for the Rivers Show
> 1.5 million for the rest of the staff, promotions
> programming, advertising, research and guess what?
> you make 2 million.
>
> JACK-FM bills 6 million:
> 30% in sales/agency commissions
> 20% in admin/engineering/capital
> Now you are at three million:
> 200K for part-time PD and national playlist
> 500K in advertising for the year and throw in 200K ASCAP/BMI
>
> you make more money than KZOK with half the billing.
>
> Welcome to the world of business. RipVanWinkle hit it on the
>
> head. JACK is a low ratings, but low risk way to make big
> money.
> No wonder Infinity and Entercomm are blowing up successful
> solid
> gold stations. This makes more money! Talent may be on the
> way
> out, for now.

Hello,

My name is Carey Curelop and I program KZOK. I will not give you dollar specifics, but I will tell you that all of the assumptions regarding KZOK's billing and profits are wrong. KZOK is the number three biller in the market making about a 50% margin. All speculations about talent costs are way off. KZOK will be the number 2 most profitable station in the city this year.

One other thing, Knowitall's predictions are about as risky as predicting the sunrise. Try predicting the top 5 rankings 25-49 adults in the spring book (in order). That would impress me.

Any questions? Just ask.

Curelop
>
 
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