Re: Lies, Damned Lies, and Research
Every PD I know wants to test more songs than will fit in the time constraints of a test... they generally end up putting a hundred or two "what if" songs on every test, plus the on-air library. In the end, we only find a few songs that can go in... ususally songs that had temporary burn or songs on the young side of the target for stations that are trying to keep their demos stable by killing some old songs and adding some newer ones with each test.
Most of us have tested all possible songs many times. If it doe not test after several tries, it will never test.
[/quote]2) Most research targets the existing P1 audience of your station and/or your perceived competition. [/quote]
We test heavier users of the station or the format, as they are the only ones who willo know the music. Sometimes, with format adjustments or changes, we use sample pods to screen so that we get people who like some blend of our music, but may not know the station or that it has changed its blend.
As multiple research projects show, iPod users are heavier users of radio, too. They are music fans, and just like CD collectors of the past, like music delivered in several forms. There are very very few people who have given up on radio; the cume percentage for all persons 18-54 in the PPM is the same as it was in the diary in 1965.
Most people want to hear their favorite songs often, don't want to hear unfamiliar music, and perceive variety as "all my favorite sonngs" which means a couple of hundred tunes.
I am now fully aware you have never been through the process of recruiting, preparing for and doing a music test as it is obvious that you don't know that people do not ask for more songs (which they perceive as being bad songs) or new songs (songs they can not sing along with) or anything out of their comfort zone. The consistency of over 90% of listners in these qualities is easily seen and the failure of stations that do not get this is very usual.
Most stations are concerned with not going down, and maybe getting a bit more in the way of quarter hours among the 6 or 7 stations the average listener has. Mostly, we are concerned with superserving our core... the half of our audience that gives us 92% of our listening time.
That is true in some cases, but look at the soft ACs with little talent presence... or the Beautiful Muisc stations of the 70's and 80's with tasped voice tracks and nothing else but #1 ratings! Each format has a different talent requirement... the #1 adult music station in LA has no DJs at all, and they are successful because they listened to the portion of the market that said they were sick of jocks and chatter.
Actually, if you inquire of a matre'd you will find that the regulars pick the same two or three dishes each time. I'm a pretty good Ruth's Chris customer, and I never eat anything but one thing... and friends I go with each have a favorite they select 9 times out of 10.
Remember, the average listener in the new world or ratings uses their favorite station 3 to 4 hours a week, and for about 40 minutes each time they tune in. If you do not hit those listeners with the best songs possible, they will go to a different station.
Investors see radio as old technology cash cows, not a growth industry. In the current market, now at a 2 year low, most of the solid cash producers are being punished badly. This has nothing to do with whether listeners do or don't find radio entertaining. Radio billing is flat or down, product mostly of the bad economy. There is likely a fabulous window of opportunity opening to buy these issues at depressed prices. When Clear pushes out several billion in EBITDA, we see big profits at some of the companies, and an opportunity to buy them cheap along with the drug sector and some of the consumer staples issues.
Until you said "Selector" I thought you were talking about the 60's... erratic and volitile small owners with no benefits, multiple duties, including taking out the trash, unpaid remotes all weekend, and no stability. We just did not have computers, so music scheduling was done by the color dots and file cards. Heck, someone had to regularly replace the songs with cue burn in the studio and replace the needles on the tone arms.
SirRoxalot said:1) You're assuming that the research isn't biased in one way or another. For example, specific music is selected for a test. You know nothing about the music that wasn't tested.
Every PD I know wants to test more songs than will fit in the time constraints of a test... they generally end up putting a hundred or two "what if" songs on every test, plus the on-air library. In the end, we only find a few songs that can go in... ususally songs that had temporary burn or songs on the young side of the target for stations that are trying to keep their demos stable by killing some old songs and adding some newer ones with each test.
Most of us have tested all possible songs many times. If it doe not test after several tries, it will never test.
[/quote]2) Most research targets the existing P1 audience of your station and/or your perceived competition. [/quote]
We test heavier users of the station or the format, as they are the only ones who willo know the music. Sometimes, with format adjustments or changes, we use sample pods to screen so that we get people who like some blend of our music, but may not know the station or that it has changed its blend.
It tells you little about the people who have already given up on radio
As multiple research projects show, iPod users are heavier users of radio, too. They are music fans, and just like CD collectors of the past, like music delivered in several forms. There are very very few people who have given up on radio; the cume percentage for all persons 18-54 in the PPM is the same as it was in the diary in 1965.
, or seek other entertainment because of the endless repetition and lack of variety.
Most people want to hear their favorite songs often, don't want to hear unfamiliar music, and perceive variety as "all my favorite sonngs" which means a couple of hundred tunes.
I am now fully aware you have never been through the process of recruiting, preparing for and doing a music test as it is obvious that you don't know that people do not ask for more songs (which they perceive as being bad songs) or new songs (songs they can not sing along with) or anything out of their comfort zone. The consistency of over 90% of listners in these qualities is easily seen and the failure of stations that do not get this is very usual.
In other words, you have little chance to grow the radio audience. At best, you may cause a small subset of the existing audience to shift their habits.
Most stations are concerned with not going down, and maybe getting a bit more in the way of quarter hours among the 6 or 7 stations the average listener has. Mostly, we are concerned with superserving our core... the half of our audience that gives us 92% of our listening time.
Look at results in the marketplace. Please explain why almost every market is dominated by the stations that have the most compelling live and local content to go with their music.
That is true in some cases, but look at the soft ACs with little talent presence... or the Beautiful Muisc stations of the 70's and 80's with tasped voice tracks and nothing else but #1 ratings! Each format has a different talent requirement... the #1 adult music station in LA has no DJs at all, and they are successful because they listened to the portion of the market that said they were sick of jocks and chatter.
As far as the "restaurant analogy" is concerned, you select the restaurant because you want steak for that meal. Even in the steak house, most people vary their orders each time they dine their. They select different cuts of beef, and different preparations. Exceptional restaurants offer dishes prepare dishes based on the freshest ingredients that are in season, so there is some variation. No, you don't go to a steak house and expect shark, but you also don't expect the "same-old same-old" every time you dine there.
Actually, if you inquire of a matre'd you will find that the regulars pick the same two or three dishes each time. I'm a pretty good Ruth's Chris customer, and I never eat anything but one thing... and friends I go with each have a favorite they select 9 times out of 10.
Remember, the average listener in the new world or ratings uses their favorite station 3 to 4 hours a week, and for about 40 minutes each time they tune in. If you do not hit those listeners with the best songs possible, they will go to a different station.
I think that most people percieve the entertainment value of radio has having declined significantly in the last 10-15 years. That's one of the reasons that stock prices have declined so sharply. Investors simply feel that the stations are not worth the value assigned to them - or paid - by broadcast management.
Investors see radio as old technology cash cows, not a growth industry. In the current market, now at a 2 year low, most of the solid cash producers are being punished badly. This has nothing to do with whether listeners do or don't find radio entertaining. Radio billing is flat or down, product mostly of the bad economy. There is likely a fabulous window of opportunity opening to buy these issues at depressed prices. When Clear pushes out several billion in EBITDA, we see big profits at some of the companies, and an opportunity to buy them cheap along with the drug sector and some of the consumer staples issues.
PS - It's hard to evaluate "talent" when you're allowed to crack the mic 4 times an hour, and all of those breaks are rigidly formatted and limited to the length of a pre-programmed music intro. How much time is spent on "talent development" by PD's who are chained to a computer running Selector for multiple stations, scheduling airshifts, attending meetings, and engaging in CYA paperwork to avoid being thrown under the bus by upper management, consultants, and/or corporate programmers?
Until you said "Selector" I thought you were talking about the 60's... erratic and volitile small owners with no benefits, multiple duties, including taking out the trash, unpaid remotes all weekend, and no stability. We just did not have computers, so music scheduling was done by the color dots and file cards. Heck, someone had to regularly replace the songs with cue burn in the studio and replace the needles on the tone arms.