Re: Not quite, my friend.
>
> The operative words in what you said are "several" and
> "nibbling". That contradicts the examples you gave
> previously, where one dominant technology eroded another.
>
> Therefore, at this point -- deriving a conclusion based on
> your statement -- no single technology has the dominance to
> do to broadcast radio what the other examples did.
>
Well, OK, but the point is broadcast radio's audience will continue to erode at an initially small but increasingly rapid pace from a variety of fronts.
When satellite radios becomes standard equipment in mid and higher priced new cars, as CD players quickly did, and when satellite radio providers become as aggressive in marketing as Dish Network and DirecTV became, the complexion will change. Once satellite ready cars reach a critical mass, the marketing money will flow. My guess two to five years out.
The cable industry thought small dish satellite TV would replace "big dish" users, but has taken nearly 25% of their subscribers away.
Watch for "free" hardware, and several months free service in the near future. As an early satellite TV adopter, I paid $600 for ONE reciever, now you get four recievers and a DVD player free with a year's service commitment.
Radio broadcasters are naive if they think satellite radio is a temporary pest, in fact it is a sleeping giant, along with WiMax will erode broadcast station audiences, revenue, and values significantly over the next ten years. Watch.
And IBOC is too little too late. Local radio could offer a lot, but with the exception of the big 50,000 watt news/talk stations, they are as local as the local Burger King.
The up side is this. Satellite TV forced cable operaters to upgrade their infrastucture, services, and reliability. One only hopes GOOD local radio makes a comeback. JACK ain't it......