As far as the San Francisco market goes, this one is hard for me to read. If I get the ownership caps wrong, let me know - I think the spinoffs of two FMs and two AMs would be required if an Audacy-Cumulus amalgamation were to happen.
Assumptions:
- Most major players are in no financial position to pull off an acquisition in a market this size. This rules out Alpha, iHeart, SBS, Salem, possibly Entravision (which isn't in the market today). Reportedly Univision isn't interested in expansion, either.
- Trades into/out of other markets might be possible, but I'm going to make a simplifying assumption that they're very unlikely.
- It's too big a market for Saga or Townsquare to be interested in.
- Religious broadcasters are looking for bargains. You never get a bargain in the Bay Area - true for radio as it is for much else. A religious broadcaster could cover an order of magnitude more areas with a similar level of population in total for the same price as the Bay Area.
- Hubbard or Bonneville could possibly be interested. But....
- No one wants more AM stations.
Then we present a few hypothetical scenarios. None will probably come true because I'm not joking around. Only my jokes become true.
Sports - KNBR (AM and FM) is a cash cow. The combined entity will want to keep it. KGMZ would be complementary and could become the new "KNBR 1050". The actual KTCT 1050 would be sold off to an ethnic broadcaster, probably South Asian. KGO would be kept for sports betting. In a bid to avoid operating an expensive format, KCBS/KFRC-FM would be spun off to Hubbard or to Bonneville, both of which have had experience with all-news formats. KSAN and KITS have complementary demographics, leaving KLLC the odd man (or woman) out, which would get spun out as well to Hubbard or Bonneville. KSFO likely would be part of that spinoff, too. KRBQ, which has been a poor performer, would be part of the spinoff as well.
Caveats: Hubbard would be a new entrant in the market and would end up with a skimpy cluster. In the case of Bonneville, it would have to spin off KUFX.
News and Sports - Similar to the above, except that the combined entity retains KCBS/KFRC-FM, viewing all-news and all-sports as complementary. KSFO would be spun off to...well, somebody, maybe the same spinoff as KTCT. Then, compared to the Sports scenario, two of the following would have to be spun off: KLLC, KITS, KSAN. It might make sense to spin off all three, since having one music station in an otherwise news and sports cluster seems like a hard sell. This might be more attractive to, say, Hubbard, compared to the Sports scenario.
Caveats: This most likely rules out Bonneville. The FM-only cluster still might seem a little on the skimpy side.
Inverse News and Sports - The combined entity spins off the news and sports stations (to Hubbard most likely) and keeps the music stations.
Caveat: KCBS/KFRC-FM are costly, but cash from KNBR could compensate somewhat.
Noncomm RomCom - Noncommercial broadcasters could take the opportunity to pick up new or stronger FM outlets. For example, USC probably would like a much better signal in the core of the Bay Area than it has today for KDFC. So that's one FM, which would be one of: KLLC, KRBQ, KITS, KSAN. The other FM could be any of: a KQED offshoot (time for KQED to try AAA?), or a southern California noncomm seeking expansion into the Bay Area - but this would be financially tough. Or that other FM could go to a Spanish-language broadcaster who might be able and/or willing to swing a purchase of one station, but not two. The required number of AM stations would be spun off to ethnic broadcasters as in the other scenarios.
Caveat: Wouldn't maximize sales price and could be a bit chaotic.
Typical Message Board Scenario - KGO becomes a dance music station.
Wild Card Scenario #1 - Whoever is running "High-Fi Dreams" on KSJO-HD4 graduates to a full FM signal, acquired in a spinoff.
Wild Card Scenario #2 - One of the FM spinoffs goes country, because there's nothing like not learning from other people's mistakes. Actually, I think country could work in the Bay Area - I am not kidding here - but it would have to be done with heavy doses of camp and irony, and country in its current state is just about the opposite of ironic, i.e., its participants take themselves way too seriously (lighten up, people! have a breaded pork tenderloin!)
Well, that'll give you something to digest for a while.
radioinsight.com
