Syracuse / Utica / Watertown
> Syracuse and Buffalo will both depend on some larger group
> dynamics. The CW needs Raycom's WUAB in Cleveland (now UPN)
> in that large market, so that could be enough leverage for
> Raycom to get a group deal that also includes WSTQ. But the
> network also needs Sinclair in many markets (like Milwaukee,
> for instance, where Sinclair owns both WB and UPN outlets),
> and it's already shafting Sinclair in Pittsburgh and Tampa,
> where it will lose WB affiliations. So guaranteeing the CW
> to WNYS and WNYO may be in order so the CW can get Sinclair
> affiliates in other markets as well.
True on the "group dynamics," however, with some caveats. WNYS is a full-power station, whereas WSTQ is low-power. Time Warner isn't "required" to carry WSTQ, and could theoretically drop it at anytime... whereas WNYS is covered by the must-carry rules. If I were the network, I'd want the station that's guaranteed to continue receving cable penetration.
Also, WNYS has been affiliated with WB longer than WSTQ has even been in existence. I would hope that is considered as well.
Finally, it's been announced that WSTM/WSTQ are up for sale. Big article in the paper a few months ago about how Raycom is ready to unload them if/when an interested buyer comes along. The only "favor" CW could give Raycom in Syracuse would be to keep WSTQ somewhat "attractive" to a potential buyer... without a network, WSTQ is not much more than an outlet for infomercials all day, and a 10PM newscast to squeeze more work and profit out of WSTM's staff.
> Utica puts cable-only "WBU" (operated by WKTV, if memory
> serves) against the UPN LPTV that's part of the WUTR/WFXV
> cluster.
This one's a toughie. I was once told that TimeWarner and a former owner of WFXV had a grudge against each other, so when WPNY (the UPN affiliate) was launched, TW purposely snubbed it because WPNY was low power, and therefore, they don't "have" to carry it. To this day, they don't, even though do they carry low-power WSTQ.
TW also originally carried Utica's WBU, but dropped it when WNYS went to WB affiliation. Right now, WBU is only carried by Adelphia in/near Utica (but not Rome), and MAYBE on TW's Ilion system.
What happens when Time Warner takes over Adelphia? The "new regime" could opt to drop WBU altogether. After all, it's not a true TV station in the eyes of the FCC, so nothing requires TW to carry it... and since TW's Rome/Oneida/Sylvan Beach lineup already includes Utica full-power stations and Syracuse stations, it would satisfy must-carry for Utica, while also providing WSTQ and/or WPNY from Syracuse... but it doesn't include WBU.
If WBU doesn't have a home on the lineup in Utica, it doesn't have a home at all. That's why I would side with WPNY... even though TW doesn't carry WPNY, at least it's viewable over the air, whereas WBU is not, and probably never will be, unless it becomes a "subchannel" of the future WKTV-DT. And with new ownership at WPNY, maybe TW could eventually be persuaded to pick it up. Even if that never happens, at least people without cable would still have a station to watch CW network.
> I've lost track of what Watertown has.
If I remember correctly, there is a cable-only WBWT, which is paired with WWTI... and last I knew, UPN was on WLOT 66. Even though there's no massive changes coming to Watertown's cable setup, I would still side with WLOT because nothing concretely guarantees WBWT's slot on cable, whereas WLOT is still going to have an on-air signal whether it's on cable or not.