103.1 Signals

[Garrett]

Re: gotta have #s

> What is really sad is that there isn't room in this market
> to put something like Indie on a better signal. Such is the
> mentality of the conglomerates that control radio now. We
> were much better off, creativity-wise, before ownership
> limits were relaxed.
>

I agree.
At first, I thought conglomerates would be a good thing for the mobile socieity who would like to hear a station just like the one back home in their new settings. But that is not what happened. Instead, medocrity became the standard. The bigger stations did NOT lift up the smaller ones. The KIIS FM clones (which is an idea I also had) did not work out the way I had thought they would.

But the good news (if you can call it that), is that San Diego to the south is about to have a much smaller CCU cluster.

 

[KMRichards]

Re: HOLD ON THERE BUDDY

> Oh Good God ,does nobody here have a sense of humor?
>
> What you fail to understand David is that a cd box set is a
> box set whether or not all of the cd's are in it at any
> given time. The important thing is that the box itself is
> not missing.
>
> A cd box set will ,depending on the month, be missing some
> cd's or have extra cd's. That is what we refer to as the "cd
> box set wobble".
>
> No matter how you slice it, if I have a couple of cd's
> missing at any given time it is due to the fact that people
> in southwest LA don't buy box sets and therefore the data is
> weighted to take that into account. Therefore if I show up a
> couple of cd's short, they will certainly be there when we
> count them next month.
>
> This noes not apply, however, to cd box sets at Indie
> because nobody can listen to them anyway, so the point is
> moot. So if there are some extra cd's in the box sets at
> Indie it surely is a mistake.

The above all proves that the original comment using the CD box set analogy, was obviously NOT taken by you as a personal attack, as you had originally stated, and that my failure to treat it as one (speaking as a moderator) was the correct course of action.

Therefore, you owe all of us an apology for the Nazi reference elsewhere in this thread.
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[StLouisSam]

Re: HOLD ON THERE BUDDY

It was indeed taken by me as a personal attack, as it WAS a personal attack.
I just happen to possess a sense of humor.




> > Oh Good God ,does nobody here have a sense of humor?
> >
> > What you fail to understand David is that a cd box set is
> a
> > box set whether or not all of the cd's are in it at any
> > given time. The important thing is that the box itself is
> > not missing.
> >
> > A cd box set will ,depending on the month, be missing some
>
> > cd's or have extra cd's. That is what we refer to as the
> "cd
> > box set wobble".
> >
> > No matter how you slice it, if I have a couple of cd's
> > missing at any given time it is due to the fact that
> people
> > in southwest LA don't buy box sets and therefore the data
> is
> > weighted to take that into account. Therefore if I show up
> a
> > couple of cd's short, they will certainly be there when we
>
> > count them next month.
> >
> > This noes not apply, however, to cd box sets at Indie
> > because nobody can listen to them anyway, so the point is
> > moot. So if there are some extra cd's in the box sets at
> > Indie it surely is a mistake.
>
> The above all proves that the original comment using the CD
> box set analogy, was obviously NOT taken by you as a
> personal attack, as you had originally stated, and that my
> failure to treat it as one (speaking as a moderator) was the
> correct course of action.
>
> Therefore, you owe all of us an apology for the Nazi
> reference elsewhere in this thread.
>

 

[radioresearcher]

Re: HOLD ON THERE BUDDY

> > Then I guess it's ok for me to say that you KM are a
> > boneheaded fool who is one trend short of a book.
>
> Here is the crux of your misunderstanding, Sam.
>
> A trend and a book have, each, as many diaries as a base.
>
> Look at what has come out this year.
>
> Fall Book = data from Oct, Nov & Dec
> January Trend = data from Nov, Dec & Jan (one from Winter,
> two from fall)
> February Trend = data from Dec, Jan and Feb
> Winter book = data from Jan, Feb & Mar
> April Trend = data from Feb, MAr & April
> May Trend = data from Mar, Apr & May.
>
> So the trend that just came out has the same roughly 7500
> diaries as a book, and has two months from Spring and one
> from Winter. It has just as big a sample as a book. It is
> not, however, cross weighted.
>
> Months are extrapolated by math at the stations. Arbitron
> does not give monthly ratings except as a byproduct when
> each book comes out. Arbitron cautions that individual month
> extraps are not anywhere nearly as reliable as trends, since
> Arbitron does nothing to make each month truly proportional.
> Proportionality is achieved in the 12 week book, not in each
> month. This is why an area, for example, may get oversampled
> in one month, and undersampled the next one and be balanced
> by the time the book ends.
>


David is 110% right. And my personal experience (I've dealt with fringe signals in multiple markets) - is that you can get two good trends and the book comes out and your jaw drops because it's worse than you thought. By the same token, your first two months can look bad, but it could bounce back when the book comes out. And with fringe sticks, the real monthly can be way off from what we extrapolate when the trend comes out.

I also know that they had high Anglo returns in May in L.A. and the O.C. was oversampled both months - possibly fueling "Indie" - but we need to reserve comment until the book comes out - and then we can look at the station over the last six months to see if there is a pattern.

 

[radioresearcher]

Re: We agree on more than you think we do

> >
> > I still believe you have to give Entravision props for
> > sticking with it and giving it a shot once the JSA with
> > Clear Channel ended. And, K.M., it has seen some ratings
> > growth since it signed on. But it will likely top out
> right
> > about where it is now ... But I still believe they can
> make
> > money with it, if they keep in on the air. Remember, you
> get
> > about $1 million in revenue for every tenth of a point for
>
> > English language stations. If they can keep it hovering
> > around a one share - they might be able to do a one share.
>
>
> There is no formua for revenue per share point. The big
> stations get more revenue per point than the big ones,
> because the big advertisers do not buy very deep in any
> demo, so most of the money goes to big stations.
>
> Special budgets go to oddly performing stations. Sports
> marketing money goes to Sports staitons and play by play,
> even if there is no evidence of ratings because it is
> marketing money, not ad money... and sports stations deliver
> key demos. KNX and KFWB do well because of cume delivery and
> qualitative.
>
> In general, a station that will always be a 0.7 to 1.2
> performer will bill about $4 million to $5 million.
> >
> > I think all Sam has tried to say is that for what its
> signal
> > is, the numbers aren't all that bad.
>
> Yet, in its coverage area, KROQ kills it horribly.
> >
> > Class A frequencies are so challenging to program in a sea
>
> > of B's - but they give people the opportunity to think out
>
> > of the box, take a few more chances, and come up with
> unique
> > niches.
>
> Simply said, unless you get over a 2 share, you are not even
> in the running for business unless you are sports or news or
> an ethnic station.
>

I respectfully disagree with you... KYSR has been hovering below a 2 share for a while and will bill well in excess of $30 million.

But I do agree with your point about formats being key. Sports can generate revenue without numbers - as can News/Talk with older demos.

I would feel comfortable with this statement: If Entravision sticks with Indie - and they average a 1.0 share over the next year - they will do $10 million in 2006...

 

[radioresearcher]

Re: We agree on more than you think we do

> > I think all Sam has tried to say is that for what its
> signal
> > is, the numbers aren't all that bad.
>
> I wish I could agree with you, but his approach has always
> been "See? See? Indie is going to beat KROQ!"
>
> And that has been what has caused him to come under attack.
> Despite the ease of being able to point at me as an
> attacker, the fact is that I am not the only one who has
> tried to get him to look at this reasonably. But he sees
> this as "if only Indie can get better ratings, they will
> kill KROQ off" and that is wishful thinking on his part.
>
> My guess is that -- now that he has attacked me purely as a
> moderator elsewhere in this thread -- someone will ask for
> him to be banned. And the admins always uphold rule #5.
>

I admit his statements may not always be conveyed in the correct way. And, KROQ has too much heritage and a superior signal to be taken down.

However, when they did Dance, 103.1 was impacting KIIS - and to a lesser extent KBIG.

No one knows how these things can perform. They haven't stuck with the same format long enough.

 

[DavidEduardo]

Re: We agree on more than you think we do

>
> I respectfully disagree with you... KYSR has been hovering
> below a 2 share for a while and will bill well in excess of
> $30 million.

Star does not sell the 12+, nor does anyone else. Star sells the 5's and 6's it gets in females 25-34 and 25-39.

Star is almost identical in effectiveness as WFAN in NY. 15th in the rankings 12+ or worse, but very efficient in men 25-44, and one of the top 5 billers in the market.
>
> But I do agree with your point about formats being key.
> Sports can generate revenue without numbers - as can
> News/Talk with older demos.

Sports does have numbers in-demo. Very efficient 25-44 male delivery.
>
> I would feel comfortable with this statement: If Entravision
> sticks with Indie - and they average a 1.0 share over the
> next year - they will do $10 million in 2006...

Then they would be the first 1 share station to have a 1:1 power ratio in history in LA. I would find it amazing were they to bill $6 million. I would also find it amazing that they last through 2006.

Even at $10 million, the ROI is going to be less than 5%, which can be improved on by buying California Munys. The cash flow will not even meet debt service on the purchase price, let alone the amortization of principal.
>

 

[StLouisSam]

Re: We agree on more than you think we do

KM you are making a very irresponsible statement.

You are putting quotes around statements that I never said. Nor would I ever say them.

You clearly don't even understand the nature and intention of all my previous posts.

That is your second violation of rule #1 against me personally.

If you are posting as a customer, then I would like to report you to yourself for another slanderous statement against me.

Or do the rules not apply to you?

Speaking of apologies.






> > I think all Sam has tried to say is that for what its
> signal
> > is, the numbers aren't all that bad.
>
> I wish I could agree with you, but his approach has always
> been "See? See? Indie is going to beat KROQ!"
>
> And that has been what has caused him to come under attack.
> Despite the ease of being able to point at me as an
> attacker, the fact is that I am not the only one who has
> tried to get him to look at this reasonably. But he sees
> this as "if only Indie can get better ratings, they will
> kill KROQ off" and that is wishful thinking on his part.
>
> My guess is that -- now that he has attacked me purely as a
> moderator elsewhere in this thread -- someone will ask for
> him to be banned. And the admins always uphold rule #5.
>

 

[KMRichards]

Re: We agree on more than you think we do

> KM you are making a very irresponsible statement.
>
> You are putting quotes around statements that I never said.
> Nor would I ever say them.

And you do not understand the concept of using quotation marks to set off a generic example. Everyone here has seen that those are not intended as exact quotes, but as a representation of your general attitude.

> You clearly don't even understand the nature and intention
> of all my previous posts.

Sorry, but yes I do. Anyone can go back and look at your posts.

> That is your second violation of rule #1 against me
> personally.

Nope.

> If you are posting as a customer, then I would like to
> report you to yourself for another slanderous statement
> against me.
>
> Or do the rules not apply to you?

The rule does not apply. You do not understand the legal meaning of "slander" and no such thing has happened.

> Speaking of apologies.

My previous request for an apology from you doesn't matter anymore. You won't be playing here much longer.
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