So when does the great AM die-off begin?

[amfmxm]

And even in radio there have been plenty of broadcasters cautious enough to avoid the kind of stupid situations that folks like Citadel and Nassau have gotten themselves into.

I thought it was interesting that Citadel almost had a deal to sell their DC stations to Bonneville last week. Reportedly, the deal-breaker was WMAL-AM. Bonneville didn't want to buy that heritage AM station, because Bonneville has been moving its content from AM to FM. In keeping with this thread, the companies that will be owning radio into the next decade will be avoiding buying AM radio stations. I don't expect Larry Wilson to be buying a lot more AM properties either. That isn't where the future or the growth will be.

No question about that... unless the AM is a throw-in with a batch of FMs. Along those lines, I figured that Bonneville would drive a hard bargain with Citadel and get the package price down to where 630 was a "bonus"--then spin it off to Dan Snyder and realize the equivalent of a cash discount. If WTEM is going to survive, RZ needs to upgrade from 980, and WMAL may be as close as The Danny ever gets to a full signal outlet for the Redskins. Tried to catch the 'Skins-Rams game Sunday in Baltimore on 980 and it was like listening through a static sieve...

Maybe it's not too late. Hey, Joel--call Dan!

 

[DavidEduardo]

No question about that... unless the AM is a throw-in with a batch of FMs. Along those lines, I figured that Bonneville would drive a hard bargain with Citadel and get the package price down to where 630 was a "bonus

I think that Bonneville is looking more for the Seattle model, where they bought a strong, but fading-demos, AM talker and moved it to FM... KIRO being the case in point.

Where they could put such a station on an FM, they would look at it... think if they could buy KGO and also get an FM to put it on. Or WLS AM.

 

[firepoint525]

The standard AM format appeals only to aging white folks who are becoming the minority.

I don't know why you brought race into it. Here in Nashville, the only Spanish-language stations we have here are on the AM band. If anyone ever starts a Spanish-language FM station (assuming it's only one station), those Spanish AMs here could be in trouble!

 

[firepoint525]

My pipe dream would be to give every surviving Class B in this country interference-free coverage out to their 2-millivolt at night.

With CFLs, computers, dimmers and every other kind of news generators, the 2 mVm ceased to be usable decades ago in urban areas. In LA, if you don't have a 15 mV/m in a particular ZIP code, you don't get ratings there.
That is Chapter 5 in the book "Why AM is Dead."

I would think that being among tall buildings (skyscrapers) would also interfere with one's reception of an AM signal.  I believe it interferes with FM reception, too.

 

[KeithE4]

I would think that being among tall buildings (skyscrapers) would also interfere with one's reception of an AM signal. I believe it interferes with FM reception, too.

When I used to drive in downtown Chicago years ago, AM was all but useless (and FM was no prize either). Even the big 50 kW blowtorches were all but inaudible. Of course, none of the big AM stations have a transmitter anywhere near the Loop, or even inside the city. All of the blowtorches are at least 15 miles away, with ESPN 1000 being almost 30 miles southwest of downtown.

Once away from the skyscrapers, everything was fine. I'll guess that Manhattan is just as bad, if not worse.

 

[GMan4341]

AM FOREVER!! I don't think AM will ever die off like VHS, dial-up, etc. As long as information need to get to the public quickly(news, weather) and real-life topics(politcs, inspiration, whatever's on the people's minds) to discuss and fuss about, AM is going to be here. AM is continuous learning for me. I believe when you know better, you do better in making the right life choices. FM is great..don't get me wrong. However, there is a time for good MUSIC to relieve stress or groove to(WHICH FM IN ATL IS MOSTLY ABOUT) and a time for informational nourishment for our minds(AM IN ATL). Let me ask this question..WHO DO YOU TURN TO WHEN YOU NEED INFO ABOUT CANDIDATES FOR CITY OFFICES, INFO ON NEW LAWS, UP-TO-THE MINUTE UPDATES ON TRAFFIC...AM or FM???

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

AM FOREVER!! I don't think AM will ever die off like VHS, dial-up, etc. As long as information need to get to the public quickly(news, weather) and real-life topics(politcs, inspiration, whatever's on the people's minds) to discuss and fuss about, AM is going to be here.

With your references to ATL I am assuming you are based in Atlanta. And it that is the case, you are not having the same experience that people in other markets may be having. Very few markets have anything like WSB. In a lot of markets there is no automatic, knee-jerk reaction that "when I wants news and information, I turn to A.M. radio."

A few years ago that was true in a large number of markets. But not today. WSB operates from a position of "King of the Mountain" and that game is over in many markets. Enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[landtuna]

I don't think AM will ever die off like VHS, dial-up, etc.

Neither VHS nor dial-up has "died off" yet and I suspect they will both be around for quite a while. There is no "affordable" alternative to VHS for time-shifting and broadband is not available to a lot of rural areas. Until those two situations resolve there will continue to be a market for both.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Neither VHS nor dial-up has "died off" yet and I suspect they will both be around for quite a while. There is no "affordable" alternative to VHS for time-shifting and broadband is not available to a lot of rural areas. Until those two situations resolve there will continue to be a market for both.

But you may have picked a couple of very good examples for this discussion.

It is getting harder and hared to find blank VHS tapes in the store. I think maybe we are down to one manufacturer. Anyone who has a significant library of VHS tapes needs to buy a couple of extra VHS decks to keep in reserve because there may not be replacement models in the stores sometime soon.... soon being 5 to 10 years.

My phone service comes via the company NOW known as AT&T. It is getting rather difficult to have conversation with them about my "land line". Having joined the ranks of those who think maybe they are past the age of employment, I want to modify my level of service. I know that if I go into one of their store-fronts to change the arrangements on my cell phone, they have someone there who will tackle me before I get out the door wanting to UPGRADE my land line package. So brilliant me.... I went into the store recently to see if that person would work with me on arranging a DOWNGRADE of my land line package. They threw me out. Land line is NOT A GROWTH BUSINESS... we have no interest in working with you. So our friends living out beyond the reach of broadband Internet via the land line may find themselves moving directly from dial-up to cell-phone style broadband in short order. (again maybe 5 to 10 years.)

So, with those two examples, I didn't read into your post much encouragement that A.M. has more than 5 to 10 years ahead of it. My hope is that maybe we can find other examples that are more encouraging.

 

[landtuna]

So, with those two examples, I didn't read into your post much encouragement that A.M. has more than 5 to 10 years ahead of it. My hope is that maybe we can find other examples that are more encouraging.

I wouldn't be the guy to ask about the significant details of the Great AM Die-off but if reading this board is accurate AM is definitely a declining biz.

Personally, I don't have anything against AM. I was raised on it and still love to try to DX faint, scratchy signals from far, far away. With all the noise out there now DXing on the AM band is hardly worthwhile - especially with the demise of the famous 50K-watt clear channel blowtorches. The last time I actually tried listening (not DXing) to AM was on a cross-country drive several years ago. All I could find was a couple of talkers out of Texas which were of no interest.

I suspect the AM band will continue to dissolve into Spanish-language/colon-blow/religious use until even that is no longer profitable. Of course the FCC might force abandonment of the band sooner but after the debacle of DTV I'm hoping they don't rush into another engineering disaster.

 

[TheBigA]

It is getting rather difficult to have conversation with them about my "land line".

Get used to it. The big companies are getting out of the land line business. Just like big radio is getting out of small markets. Verizon has sold its landline business in the midwest to Frontier Communications in Connecticut. The Verizon CEO called the sale "great value for our stockholders." Smaller company means better service, right? Not exactly. The smaller company is in the bill collection business, not the development or improvement business. So as long as the lines keep working, they keep sending you a bill. But the R&D for POTS is done.

 

[landtuna]

But the R&D for POTS is done.

If you mean normal POTS land line service what R&D is necessary?

Over time POTS will transition into fiber-based technology which will open up a bunch of options but to people who just want POTS it won't be of any value.

 

[TheBigA]

If you mean normal POTS land line service what R&D is necessary?

There hasn't been for some time, which is why the big guys like Verizon and AT&T are getting out. No growth. It's just maintenance. At some point, cell service will go the same way.

 

[DavidEduardo]

Not even Spanish language... during the high-price years for FMs, some AMs in markets with lower percentages of Hispanics were useful as Spanish language facilities, but that will not prevail for long.

The Hispanic community is 10 to 12 years younger than the non-Hispanic population of most cities, and has about zero interest in AM. As an example, in LA where there are plenty of Spanish language FMs, there are only about 2 shares in 18-49 or 25-54 for AM in Spanish, while there are about 26 to 27 shares for the FMs.

Now that FMs are less expensive, look for more Spanish language AMs to move to FM or die... or for poorer signaled Spanish language FMs to go to bigger signals... like WCAA taking the WQXR facility in New York City.

That leaves "All colon cleanser all the time" as the most interesting remaining AM format; the paid preaching seems to be migrating to TV, where the placining of hands and such visual elements of such ministries is better witnessed (no disrespect intended... it's that charismatic churc services are very visual!).

 

[TheBigA]

Almost an interesting relationship between the decline of POTS and AM...except AM's decline has been way longer.

 

[louromshow]

Did anyone read this month's Talkers article on FM Talk? It suggested that on avereage an AM Talker switching to FM can expect to triple its Arbitron in just two to three books simply by making the switch. In most markets, as I understand it, all but maybe one AM station are doing no better than a 1.5 or so, many much much lower. Seems to me if that premise is true it could take many struggling AM talkers and turn them in to a viable 3.5, 4.0, or even better. That's not great but it's profitable. If I owned the AM Talker I work for, I'd do what I could to acquire a struggling FM, move my news/talk format there, and flip the AM to the only AM that works in smaller markets -- sports talk. That's my novice opinion. Anyone???

 

[landtuna]

Almost an interesting relationship between the decline of POTS and AM...except AM's decline has been way longer.

By 'decline' do you mean the subscription base falling? Otherwise POTS is about the same as it's always been. I still much prefer using POTS to cell. Dropped connections, static, poor voice quality, high cost and unscrupulous business practices of wireless corporations won't attract me as a customer.

My POTS service is cheap, reliable, excellent voice quality and also provides my DSL service (also cheap and reliable). In the next few months an upgrade to fiber will be completed and then I'll have up/download speeds equal or greater than the coax connections available here. All for a whole lot less moola.

 

[TheBigA]

By 'decline' do you mean the subscription base falling?

Yep...and it will continue to decline, just as AM's audience has declined.