Smooth Jazz Format Forecast for 2008

[cklw800]

Most of us predicted both BA defections and BA sign-ons for 2007. We knew that local jocks would be blown out by the dozens and it happened. We predicted no changes in the music and we were right. Now that most (not all) of the bloodletting has happened, what do they do now? Revamp the format as Smooth AC. I've read that some SJ stations are selling to clients as Smooth AC so they'd understand better what they are buying (and the sellers will have a clue finally to what they're selling).

My prediction for 2008: BA will slowly evolve to Smooth AC by title while more of their stations continure to sell it as such. Since PPM isn't that friendly to urban or smooth jazz right now, you might see less urban AC in the mix on the vocals. Only the very hottest urban crossovers will make it in. Look for lots more John Mayer and other AC crossovers and the less-urbanized neo-soul of Corinne Bailey-Rae and more. The instrumentals for the most part may be tossed but at a very slow pace. To make it less obvious look for the INSTRUMENTALISTS to remain but their MUSIC will feature more VOCALS. That way the BA hosts (who are also intrumentalists) can remain relevant but feature more of their tracks with vocals. All of them are probably in the studio now making that happen. Look for the "j-word" to be taken out of the on-air presentations as we get into 2008. Smooth AC will have less of an urban feel. Look for it to be more of a "Smooth AAA."

Specialty shows: You might see a few brave programers go for it on AC stations. Non-SJ stations carry some SJ syndicated programming already. WARM98 in Cincinnati has had one for years. Michael Grayson's more eclectic mix is gone as well as Grayson himself. The playlist is now song for song a regular SJ format list, hosted by their midday guy. With some the of mispronunciations he obviosuly doesn't know what he's playing, but then he doesn't really have to. Look for BA to even consult these lists. I don't think you'll see much "free-styling" in specialty shows like Grayson did. But some adventurous programmer might give us everything we had expectations for in Smooth Jazz within a specialty program.

Current successful SJ stations: I predict WNUA, KTWV, KIFM and the Detroit and Cleveland stations will remain as is but still may swing a little more Smooth AC in their music.

Lastly, PPM: Will change the fortunes of the currently successful SJ stations.

 

[Bill Harmonic]

cklw800 is pretty much on the mark! BA has wanted to take the format more vocal for some time now and I predict they will do that next year. I've seen to many memos that say otherwise. Don't be surprised when you end up with a music mix that is just about the reverse of what it is now. Instead of four vocals an hour you'll have only four instrumentals an hour. BA likes to run sets of three and you'll have vocal, instrumental and then another vocal. Miami has been doing this for over a year now. I don't think they will go the Smooth AAA route because that's to foreign to their mindset. When they say Smooth AC, that's what they mean and on-air, the word jazz will disappear. The big market stations will stay with it (thank goodness for KIFM) and everyone else will either be a clone or up on the bird. Thanks to BA and a few others, the format has hit the wall. I believe it will survive in certain dayparts (7-mid or weekends) which is the way it started off years ago. I've been doing some form of the music in a show or on a station for over twenty years now and the music is just to bland and bad to keep going. It's a damned if you do or damned if you don't story especially for the artists who have to keep doing one bad cover after another if they want to get played. You don't have smooth jazz but just a so-called hip easy listening station that if you don't promote and market heavily, it just slips into the night and that's the mistake that most of the operators outside of the bigs don't understand. Just like the artists who have been blown out of the label system, the stations themselves are on the way also. Smooth jazz will exist in other worlds like the web. The format is almost gone as we know it but I do believe it will live on somewhere else with different tempos and textures. BA will say the PPM is responsible for the changes they need to make and the sheep will follow.

 

[AnotherCat]

Smooth A/C in word and content by mid-year. An easy listening format for people who think mainstream A/C is too "young" or too uptempo/foreground/hard (whoever those people may be) but don't want to hear a "Dove" type station that still plays Bread and Neil Diamond. I don't see an AAA lean coming though. That would require interesting current music and BA has been avoiding interesting music and current music since the first SJ Network went on the air 12 or so years ago. I see songs and artists that start to become burnt out or incompatible with mainstream A/C because they sound too "old" sliding into Smooth A/C and Smooth A/C becoming a dumping ground for substandard mellow vocals that A/C won't play. Kind of like A/C in the early 90s when we got worked on the stiffs CHR wouldn't take.

Artists will quit trying to record BA compatible music because the chance of it getting played is so unlikely as instrumentals are phased out. They wil start to sound like themselves again, which will create some of the most interesting music we've seen in a while. A few have already done this (Navarro, Kashiwa, AA, Hiroshima etc). This will revitalize the music but the potential audience will have to be re-educated - the generation that grew up with "underground" radio will have to learn that the new "underground" radio is called the internet. This music will feed the brunch shows, which can't sound B/EZ because the audience is still breathing. Brunch shows will return but those that are programmed self indulgently or too "jazzy" will fail, especially the ones that have a "jazz afficianado" or educational approach. The ones that are entertaining, fun, and have an energetic vibe will succeed. What a brunch show can do is provide the audience with music that doesn't remind them of what they hear at work or in their everyday lives...the same escapist factor that "new age" had in the 80s.

 

[AnotherCat]

As an addendum the BA Network/format seems to work when it goes on a daypart or full time at a heritage station that has an established following, especially if that station was already moving toward the Lite/Oldies approach. Jacksonville is a pretty good illustration of what happens if the Network goes on a station that is not established and doesn't have a big following already. There was all this hype about what a big turnaround the Network programming would produce but it has driven listeners away, this market is too young to support an oldies station of any type. Plus when it comes to pulling new listeners having established musicians hosting the dayparts means nothing. If you don't know who Dave Koz or Paul Hardcastle are then their pre-recorded plesantries and recitations of show prep material mean nothing to the listeners. Especially when our A/C station shares a significant amount of songs and has a very conversational, relatable, and local personalities, including an excellent PM drive jock who was a very popular personalities on a live SJ station we had in the late 90s. The Network will work on WNUA or KKSF but as a startup if there is quality A/C competition, doubtful...