HD implementation costs

[DavidEduardo]

As I have mentioned several times, a lot depends on location.

No, it generally depends on physics and the characteristics of the typical FM radio in use in homes and workplaces. Simply stated, nearly no listening can take place beyond the 65 dbu contour because a lesser signal can not penetrate walls and be "usable" on consumer radios.

I can listen to my FM in the car to well past its 50 dbu contour using the stock radio that came in my car.

You may be able to hear a station, but in almost the all cases the average consumer who is not a radio geek or DXer will not listen to stations at those low signal intensities because of simple things like the fact that the signals won't be captured by the scan function or, if a preset, there will be variations, dropouts, etc.

I also suspect that you'd find that your "70% of listening is in-home or at-work" statistic varies from location to location as well.

70% of the US 12+ population live in a top 100 rated metro. The figures for at-home and at-work vary by less than +/- 2% using a sample of a dozen of those top 100 markets. The only real exception is the New York City MSA where in-car is around 25%, much lower than the national average.

The Census provides commute times. It's easy to see that the variations have more to do with infrastructure (bridges, highways, location of residential vs. commercial zones, etc.) than market size.

It probably is correct taking into account that most of total radio listening happens in urban or suburban areas, simply because that is where most of the population is.

Correct. And since I stated that my usage of the term "usable" was based on conversion to measurable listening, we are dealing with the roughly 250 metros that are rated. All of those display remarkably similar characteristics. Only when you get beyond market 100 to 150 do commute times decrease, making in-home and at-work even more important.

In rural areas, where you drive 15 miles to buy a loaf of bread, I'll bet that more people than the national average listen in their car.

That segment of the population is so small that it is irrelevant to the long term survival of OTA radio. The battle will be waged in the big markets... 30% of all radio revenue is found in the first 10 markets alone!

It should also be pointed out that HD doesn't seem to be very useful past the analog station's 65 dbu contour.

Except as an excuse for a translator, HD is just not useful at all.

The point is you shouldn't make a blanket statement that covers all possibilities. There are a lot of variables to evaluate.

That's why, in a prior post, I carefully used the term "essentially" in saying that "essentially all home and work FM listening takes place inside the 65 dbu contour". The actual figure is 80% takes place in the 70dbu contour and a total of 95% takes place inside the 65 dbu contours.

This data was derived by using actual diary returns from a 6 year period (the diary tracks location specifically, while the PPM can't distinguish in-car from at-work) in a variety of rated top 100 markets. The listening ZIP codes were plotted against coverage maps in a computer based process. The amount of listening was based on "incidents" and not TSL, and literally millions of incidents were tracked. The pattern revealed itself early on, and was not affected by the year, the season or, to any great extent, the market.

The only exceptions, where some significant listening occurred outside the 65 dbu, were niche formats with devoted followings, such as classical. It can be assumed that those listeners did not defy the laws of physics, but, instead, bought better radios or were diligent in orienting existing receivers, adding an antenna or messing with the power cord to get adequate reception.

Obviously, people living in Kingman, AZ or Omena, MI were not among the diary keepers analyzed. And folks living outside rated markets were not, either. But all of those are really such a tiny percentage of the population that they are essentially unimportant in the determination of AM and FM's eventual survival.

 

[DavidEduardo]

Well David. I actually own a 1 Kw AM station as well as a Class A FM station, so I'm pretty familiar with the costs involved. . My electric bill for the AM last month was $96.31. It does have a solid state transmitter and it has been mild so the air conditioning hasn't been taxed, but it does run all the time. The tower is not required to be lit. The highest the bill has ever been is a little over $160.00.

You apparently are in one of the lower cost areas in the country, such as the ones where hydro or subsidized power is plentiful. In other areas, the costs will be more in line with my projection.

I heard from the owner of a 1 kw non-d station in California's Coachella Valley and was told that the bill for an installation that has a single unlit tower can go as high as $600 in the summer to keep the transmitter cool; rates where the station is located are very high. In the opposite end of the valley, where there is a rural electric cooperative, a comparable station never pays more than $250.

 

[Chuck]

I'm sure you are quoting the statistics accurately, but even you acknowledge that they are most likely to be valid in the top 100 markets. There are a lot of radio stations that are not in the top 100 markets. I don't have time to look it up - maybe you do - but I wouldn't be surprised to find that the number of radio stations in markets 101+ and unrated markets far exceeds the number it the top 100 markets. Does that make them insignificant? I don't think so. Most are, or at least could be, viable businesses. They simply measure economic success it thousands of dollars rather than millions of dollars. Properly run, they can still provide a reasonable return on investment, employ a few people, and serve their communities. Not everybody wants to be in top market. It would be unlikely that very many of them can see a return on an investment in HD, at least not now. That is a major stumbling block for HD.

The topic for this thread was HD implementation costs. My point was, in some cases, it may be cheaper to purchase an AM station and FM translator(s) than it is to go the HD route with the same FM translators. Since I've actually done it, I stand by that statement. To figure it out took some engineering work that is beyond the current discussion on this message board. The answer will not be the same in every instance. Any generalized conjecture on your or my part is just that. A good engineer can help make the decision much more obvious.

As for my electric bill, I believe the rate is 9.5 cents per kilowatt hour. Not having to light the tower certainly does help, The lights on my FM tower draw almost as much power as the transmitter, which is pretty similar to the power requirements for the air conditioning. If you are looking for a way to justify some FM translators and don't really care if anyone listens to the AM or not, you can always shorten the tower to under 200 feet so you don't have to light it. Whether that makes good business sense is something you'd need to take a pencil to.

 

[DavidEduardo]

I'm sure you are quoting the statistics accurately, but even you acknowledge that they are most likely to be valid in the top 100 markets.

I am citing the statistics, as I can not quote myself. I did the study, along with my support staff, to develop better criteria for evaluating all the move-ins, rimshots and general turkey facilities that Docket 80-90 created, as well as the stations that should never have existed.

And the data on usable service contours for FM is valid anywhere, since penetration of buildings and houses is related to American construction and building codes as well as the nature of the kinds of receivers in general use.

There are a lot of radio stations that are not in the top 100 markets.

The "provability" of the contour data works in any rated market... and there are over 250 of them in Arbitron. That makes up about 220,000,000 of the 260,000,000 persons 12+ in the country (rounded, of course).

I don't have time to look it up - maybe you do - but I wouldn't be surprised to find that the number of radio stations in markets 101+ and unrated markets far exceeds the number it the top 100 markets.

There are 6200 stations in the top 250 markets, and 11,100 total commercial stations in the US. It took me about 30 seconds to find that, using BIA.

The topic for this thread was HD implementation costs. My point was, in some cases, it may be cheaper to purchase an AM station and FM translator(s) than it is to go the HD route with the same FM translators.

My point had to do with your anecdotal experience about FMs being usable out to the 50 dbu contour. As I said, geeks and DXers may find getting stations that "far out" to be fun, millions and millions of listener responses to Arbitron show that 80% of FM listening in home and at work is in the 70 dbu contour and 75% of the rest is inside the 65 dbu contour.

 

[Shiny Knob]

80% of FM listening in home and at work is in the 70 dbu contour and 75% of the rest is inside the 65 dbu contour

That's a thought provoking pair of numbers. One that would also be helpful as an overlay is what percentage of the radio population is inside the 70 dBu contour and what percentage of that population is inside the 65 dBu contour. By having that variable included, one can have a better grasp of what signal level makes people stop listening to a specific station.

Logically, the 70 dBu 'City Grade' signal, which covers all of the Community of License, is going to be where most of the people live and work anyway. This has to have a large impact on the ARB numbers just because that's where most of the potential listeners are located to start with. It makes sense that the bulk of ARB numbers are going to be generated where the signal is strong because that's where the population just happens to live.

This is not to lessen the value of the signal vs ratings research, but I think it's important to have those numbers in perspective.

To put it another way, more people are going to be listening where there are more people. Station signals are designed to be strongest where they'll reach the most people. Weaker at the edges where the population per square mile is less.

Are there any numbers for places where the signal levels are, for example, 54-64 dBu for most stations? This would help quantify the point where people don't listen because they don't get a signal that's strong enough to bother with. For example, counties on the edge of ARB metros that have little or no local FM, where the 60 dBu contours cut across the center of the population mass.

Inquiring minds want to know!

 

[DavidEduardo]

80% of FM listening in home and at work is in the 70 dbu contour and 75% of the rest is inside the 65 dbu contour

That's a thought provoking pair of numbers. One that would also be helpful as an overlay is what percentage of the radio population is inside the 70 dBu contour and what percentage of that population is inside the 65 dBu contour. By having that variable included, one can have a better grasp of what signal level makes people stop listening to a specific station.

It does not matter, as what we are looking at is each individual station. In many cases, adjacent markets with equally dense populations are found... and the finding applies.

Particularly telling are inferior facilities such as class A's in major markets. They are surrounded by equally dense populations as that found inside the mentioned contours, but get close to no listening outside them.

Again, much of the issue is that it takes a 70 dbu signal to penetrate most buildings where people live and work. Some people may be able to use a 65 to 70 dbu signal given the location in the building, the kind of receiver, etc. But below that point, there is no significant listening.

In other words, the study confirmed the reality of reception inside structures, where around 70% of listening takes place.

Logically, the 70 dBu 'City Grade' signal, which covers all of the Community of License, is going to be where most of the people live and work anyway. This has to have a large impact on the ARB numbers just because that's where most of the potential listeners are located to start with. It makes sense that the bulk of ARB numbers are going to be generated where the signal is strong because that's where the population just happens to live.

While that is the assumption, where we see reality is with A's and rimshots. Look at Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio for markets overwhelmed with these kinds of stations. Or Phoenix and Las Vegas. Or Fresno. Or Chicago with loads of suburban FMs. Or the granddady of all, the Puerto Rico MSA where absolutely no station puts a city grade over the whole market.

In each of these cases, it is easy to look at the defective signal stations and say that if they get a certain performance in part of the market geography but not in other areas, aside from a few minor caveats, the issue is signal.

To put it another way, more people are going to be listening where there are more people. Station signals are designed to be strongest where they'll reach the most people. Weaker at the edges where the population per square mile is less.

That rule might have applied in the 70's and 80's, but today there are so many incomplete coverage FMs that it is pretty easy to say that you will not pick up listening at home or at work if the signal is below 65 dbu, no matter what the population density. This ratings-based verification simply confirms the limits of usable coverage and is critical data when evlauating stations with incomplete signals... a common occurrence after 1990.

Are there any numbers for places where the signal levels are, for example, 54-64 dBu for most stations? This would help quantify the point where people don't listen because they don't get a signal that's strong enough to bother with. For example, counties on the edge of ARB metros that have little or no local FM, where the 60 dBu contours cut across the center of the population mass.

It is much easier to look at where partial signals get listening. And they do get 95% of the listening incidents inside the 65 dbu signal. Since many rimshots have a portion of sparsely populated areas and some dense ones (if they were already in dense population areas, they would not have moved towards the bigger market) this is easy to see. Similarly, A's in big metros (LA has about a dozen or so all self-contained within the MSA) are even better examples. Or look at the South Bay signals in the San Francisco market and the listening to the ones on Sutro as you go south... they all have the same phenomenon.

 

[Shiny Knob]

Good answer. Thank you.

 

[JH_Radio]

I dont think I asked this before but what does 65 dbu contour even mean?
It would seem that bassed on what i'm reading from you guys that the further you are away from the station the dbu contour goes up in numbers. The higher the number the further you are away from the station and the signal is not as strong.

 

[Chuck]

I dont think I asked this before but what does 65 dbu contour even mean?
It would seem that bassed on what i'm reading from you guys that the further you are away from the station the dbu contour goes up in numbers. The higher the number the further you are away from the station and the signal is not as strong.

The farther away you get from the transmitter, the lower the number. A station's 70 dbu contour is considered "City Grade". In other-words, even cheap radios inside a building should be able to pick it up. For most classes of FM service, the 60 dbu contour is considered the edge of the station's "protected contour." Past that point you are on your own. If something interferes with your signal beyond that point, you have to accept it.

Most car radios work well to at least the 55 dbu contour, and many will work way past that point, depending on what kind of co-channel interference there is. Even though there is no entitlement to coverage outside of your protected contour, a lot of stations, especially in rural areas, enjoy coverage well past that point. They are very reluctant to give it up. That is one of the reasons there has been a lot of opposition to the idea of LPFM, translators and HD radio, as all can infringe on the ultimate coverage area of an existing station.

 

[tomservo]

At least with translators, though, the full power station still has final veto. I've read about several translators on the same frequency as a full power station in a whole different market, but they were shut down because someone, somewhere, complained about loss of reception, well outside the 60/54 dBu contour.

The FCC either needs to call this area the wild wild west and let translators and LPFMs have that space, or change the definition of a "protected contour" to something like 30 dBu.

 

[Chuck]

At least with translators, though, the full power station still has final veto. I've read about several translators on the same frequency as a full power station in a whole different market, but they were shut down because someone, somewhere, complained about loss of reception, well outside the 60/54 dBu contour.

The FCC either needs to call this area the wild wild west and let translators and LPFMs have that space, or change the definition of a "protected contour" to something like 30 dBu.

It's true, but the translator operator does have the option of addressing the interference complaint and doing something for the listener to correct the problem. Sometimes it turns out the full power station doesn't have any information about who actually made the complaint. (or the complaint may be bogus). In that case the translator operator can prevail. Even if they do know who made the complaint, as long as the translator operator is able to fix their problem, then the translator can still stay on the air. That may mean they have to buy the complainant a really good radio, or install an outdoor antenna for them, or both. It just depends on what it takes to persuade them to drop the complaint.

The translator rules are incredibly inconsistent and really could use some reform. If the FCC is really serious about localism, then they should allow translators to originate local programming. They have already created a commercial LPFM service by letting AM and HD stations to rebroadcast on FM translators, even if the AM station is off the air after dark. Further, if they allow AM's to have translators, those translators should be granted "Primary Status" so they can't be bumped in the future when some full power station wants to move into a metro market. Otherwise, it is a potential death sentence for the AM if they lose their FM translator.

 

[Ai4i]

A commercial station must cover its COL with a city grade signal and is protected from adjacent channel interference within its primary signal:
City = 70 dbu = 3.16 mv/m = 3160 uv/m
Primary = 60 dbu = 1.00 mv/m = 1000 uv/m
Listenable = 54 dbu = ¼ mv/m = 250 uv/m
Reserved band stations are treated differently, so these guys and these guys have essentially the same coverages, but the three colored circles mean different things.

 

[Ai4i]

David, I recognize that this is a nothing little station next to a tight, competitive market, but...according to R-L, it appears that the population ratio between within the 60db line and outside of it is several million to zero and a 54db line would not yield very different results. So, where would most of their listeners be ???