Setting aside the question of whether Entercom should have even flipped one of their two country stations or not, I had also been wondering why Entercom chose to keep KKWF over KMPS.
I decided to dig into the ratings, and for simplicity sake I’m looking at A25-54 AQH rating, M-F 6a-7p. Nielsen lets you go back 46 books so this is looking at each monthly from June 2014 – December 2017.
Of those 46 books, KMPS had a higher rating than KKWF 17 times. KKWF won 20 times, and they tied 9 times.
All of KMPS’ wins came after November ’15, however the majority of those weren’t blowouts. Only 5 of the 17 KMPS victories were by more than a tenth of a point. Looking back over the past 24 books, KMPS and KKWF were within a tenth of a point 20 of 24 times.
KKWF had won the war each month from June ‘14 – October ‘15 and they did so more convincingly, averaging over two tenths of a point better than KMPS.
Here’s what I think Entercom’s rational was:
1) KKWF had won the battle in a convincing manner for years until Nov ’15 when all of a sudden the rating was cut in half. This coincided with a 10% churn of KKWF panelists, which represented 20% of KKWF heavy listening. Entercom’s conclusion: It wasn’t us. The panel change screwed with our ratings.
2) Most compliant panelists are in the panel for 18-24 months. If you go 24 books from Nov ’15, you’re at Aug ’17 which coincides with the month KKWF stopped a 4 book slide and had their best rating of 2017. Entercom’s conclusion: It wasn’t us. The panel change screwed with our ratings again, but now those panelists are gone and things are looking up.
3) We (Entercom) know KKWF. It’s our baby. We have set partnerships, we know how to program it, we know how to sell it. We don’t know KMPS. Entercom’s conclusion: Advantage KKWF.
4) Even when we were losing to KMPS, it wasn’t by that much. Do we think that we can beat whoever ends up flipping to country (iHeart with a syndicated morning show or Hubbard who hasn’t programed a country station in this market)? Entercom’s conclusion: Yeah, we can beat either or both of those two. We’ve programmed country radio in this market for 10 years and for the majority of those years we beat the heritage country competitor. A new unknown country station in the market shouldn’t be hard to beat.
5) We have a brand new morning show on KKWF. We have a new PD on KKWF. Those are our people that we hired just recently. Entercom’s conclusion: We don’t know the KMPS staff. We know our guys. Advantage KKWF.
6) Billing wise, KKWF had been beating KMPS each month until just recently. Entercom’s conclusion: Ratings are getting better, we have the relationships with the direct country clients, we’ll be fine.
My conclusion: If Entercom was set on flipping one of their country stations, KMPS did in retrospect make the most sense. At the very least, it should be fun to watch a newly invigorated country battle.