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Are the recent boston ppm ratings cause for concern?

The latest PPM Ratings seem ridiculous!

THE LOSERS

WBOS "Alt 92.9" went from 2.1 down to 1.9 - Not to surprising since the Alternative Format isn't very popular anymore.

WKAF "The New 97.7" went from 1.9 down to 1.7 - This was a shock because everywhere I go I hear people listening to 97.7 and they seem very active in the community.

WBWL "The Bull" went from 2.7 down to 2.6 - With David Corey at Country 102.5 this station don't stand a chance!

WODS "Amp Radio" went from 3.0 down to 2.8 - This station seems lost and is not consistent with their format.

WBUR "Boston University" went from 4.5 down to 4.0 - Why is a non commercial radio station doing better than half of the commercial stations in Boston?

WGBH went from 4.4 down to 4.2 - So you're telling me more people listen to this station than Amp Radio, The Bull, and The New 97.7?

WZLX "Classic Rock" went from 5.5 down to 5.3 - Karlson and McKenzie are ok and I'm surprised they took a .2 dip!

WMJX "Magic 106.7" went from 6.4 down to 6.3 - This station is the go to for just about every workplace! They didn't take to bad of a hit but I'd pay attention.

WROR "Boston's Greatest Hits" went from 7.2 down to 7.1 - Again it's kind of funny that Beasley took a hit of .1


Let's take a trip down memory lane....
Before the PPM, radio was measured by Arbitron using a diary methodology. Consumers were paid to fill in a small foldout pamphlet-style paper survey designed to be understood at a 6th grade level. Participants detailed their radio listening – stations they listened to each day and how many hours they listened to each station over a one week span. They also shared basic demographic information such as age, gender, race, education, and income.

The diary system wasn’t the most accurate measurement system ever imagined. There were tons of flaws in the methodology. To start with, the survey started on a Thursday and ended on Wednesdays. Why? According to Arbitron, the midweek start improved overall diary return. Additionally, radio listeners weren’t always truthful, which is a risk of any system that relies on self-reporting. Listeners either didn’t fill the diary in daily and “forgot” what station they listened to and for how long or they had a strong allegiance to one station or DJ and gave all of their listening time on the survey to that station. If you ever had the opportunity to go to Arbitron to view diaries or had a radio rep show you a copy of a completed survey, you will know what I mean when I say that although it was the only method we had in those days, they were far from accurate.

So, what effect did all of these inaccuracies have on the final product? Opening up a rating book often made it apparent that there were drastic changes to a station’s Average Quarter Average rating or Cume numbers from book to book which were published 4 times per year. If enough diary respondents decided to fill in their diary for a particular station’s host in a particular day part – more so than in the previous diary period – the ratings would spike up. This resulted in competing stations bombarding the buyer for that market with data that tried to negate the increase for that station. Even the smallest of shifts in ratings could impact a station’s bottom line revenue significantly. This, I’m sure, rarely entered the minds of those that filled in their paper diary. For them, their goal was to accept the nominal stipend for completing the survey and nothing more, not realizing that their actions could have implications for radio stations, advertisers, and agencies alike.

Fast forward to 2007 when after years of testing, the electronic version of the paper diary, the Portable People Meter, is born. The PPM, is a pager like device that is worn on your belt and measures an inaudible signal which Arbitron uses to detect exposure to media and entertainment, including broadcast, cable and satellite television; terrestrial, satellite and online radio as well as cinema advertising and many types of place-based digital media broadcast signals. Finally, the measurement of listening has been converted to a digital format and the stations, advertisers, and agencies can rest easy that their currency will be reported accurately.

Wait a minute, not so fast. Although the ratings are more accurate there are still issues. Due to the way the PPM captures data, the initial measurements converted stations’ ratings from long time spent listening to high Cume. This resulted in a significant negative change in most stations’ deliveries. This, in turn, changed cost-per-points in PPM measured markets. Most stations refused to adjust their rates when the new measurements were implemented. Consider the below chart that shows both the rating decline post PPMs A roughly 30% drop in AQH, which is the primary benchmark for media buyers, coupled with an increase in CPP makes buying each and every rating point much more expensive. Can radio continue to compete on a like to like basis when planners are sitting down to do their yearly plans? Yes, but the evaluation will need to include much more than just “how much does it cost” and take into consideration the benefits of the medium such as its immediacy, intrusiveness and flexibility.

It is clearly evident that PPM is not working and stations are suffering because of it!
 
It's all about how stations do in their target age group demographics, which we don't see in the publicly published ratings. The 12+ that we see doesn't mean as much.

Also, too dramatic about stations fluctuating a tenth of a point or two. Stations often fluctuate those relatively small amounts, both up and down, from month to month. The station that may be down a tenth or two one month may be up that same amount the next month, and vice versa, while really just maintaining their status quo over the longer run. If a station is on a downward trend from month to month, that could be a concern, but not so much when just down a tenth or two in a given month.
 
And as for the combined 8.2 posted by WBUR and WGBH, you must not be familiar with the demographics of the Boston market -- several elite universities in and around the city, many alumni still living and working (and retiring) in the area. Add the rating that classical WCRB (noncommercial too, as it's owned by WGBH) gets -- usually in the low 2s -- and the fractional shares of WERS and WUMB, and you have a market with noncomms racking up a solid 10 share. Not surprising at all to this native Bostonian.
 
As I tell my statistics students:

One observation does not equal a trend.
 
As I tell my statistics students:

One observation does not equal a trend.


There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. All I remember from my Stats class, 1977, first paragraph in the textbook.... really... and something about r factors.


WBOS ..... the decline is due to the morning show driving listeners away

WBUR... no clue, I'll consider it a statistical anomaly until I see it across several books, and even then the 6+ numbers mean nothing to anyone in the trade, except stations that are too cheap to subscribe and could use them in sales literature, where stations that don't subscribe have been sued for using proprietary copyrighted ratings info in sales pitches.

The rest... point ones and two's.... not uncommon for the 6+ numbers to fluctuate a little ....

Just my opinion as someone that knows nothing except for what I read here....
 
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There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. All I remember from my Stats class, 1977, first paragraph in the textbook.... really... and something about r factors.


WBOS ..... the decline is due to the morning show driving listeners away

WBUR... no clue, I'll consider it a statistical anomaly until I see it across several books, and even then the 6+ numbers mean nothing to anyone in the trade, except stations that are too cheap to subscribe and could use them in sales literature, where stations that don't subscribe have been sued for using proprietary copyrighted ratings info in sales pitches.

The rest... point ones and two's.... not uncommon for the 6+ numbers to fluctuate a little ....

Just my opinion as someone that knows nothing except for what I read here....
The decline of WBOS is due to it being a boring station, musically and otherwise.
It is no WFNX. I listened to WFNX, because I discovered new, exciting music there, presented by intelligent, funny, and passionate DJ's.
Please don't give me the argument that WFNX only had a 1.7 share on average.
They never tried to appeal to the masses, even with a signal that were spotty in areas.
WBOS is closer to a mainstream rock station, with its head in the 90's.
And it's a poor one at that.
I haven't heard their WRIF morning show.
Alternative isn't on the downswing, stations lacking creativity, and willing to take chances are. They need to reinvent themselves even if they keep a rock based format
 
Speaking of the diary ratings, is there any way to see how many listeners non-subscriber stations or out-of-market stations get? I miss the diary ratings for this reason alone...
 
Speaking of the diary ratings, is there any way to see how many listeners non-subscriber stations or out-of-market stations get? I miss the diary ratings for this reason alone...

Actually, what is to be missed is Arbitron. They were more liberal in the release of 12+ numbers for non-subscribed stations and out of market stations.

Today, Nielsen does not release the "free" 12+ data for any station that is not subscribed to the specific report in question. So if a subscribed station gets listening in a peripheral market but only subscribes to the core market, the "free" numbers for that second market will not include them.

Subscribers get everything... local non-subscribed stations and out of market ones. But there is a considerable amount of coin involved.
 
T
WBOS "Alt 92.9" went from 2.1 down to 1.9 - Not to surprising since the Alternative Format isn't very popular anymore.

Statistically a 1.9 and a 2.1 are the same. One needs to look at multi-book trends and multi-book averages to see what is closer to reality. Eli nailed this point and is accurate in saying that what matters is the performance in the target demos, too.

WKAF "The New 97.7" went from 1.9 down to 1.7 - This was a shock because everywhere I go I hear people listening to 97.7 and they seem very active in the community.

Could be a sample issue. Stations with deficient coverage are very subject to changes in the PPM panel where a few panelists drop out and are replaced by a few who are outside the signal range. And a 1.9 and a 1.7 are statistically the same.

WBWL "The Bull" went from 2.7 down to 2.6 - With David Corey at Country 102.5 this station don't stand a chance!

Again, statistically no change.

WODS "Amp Radio" went from 3.0 down to 2.8 - This station seems lost and is not consistent with their format.

Another "no change" based on the predictable margin of error in a random probability sample.

WBUR "Boston University" went from 4.5 down to 4.0 - Why is a non commercial radio station doing better than half of the commercial stations in Boston?

Why is KQED #1 in San Francisco? Or the NPR station in San Diego or the one in DC also at the top? Good public stations that have good signals rank very well in many major markets.

WGBH went from 4.4 down to 4.2 - So you're telling me more people listen to this station than Amp Radio, The Bull, and The New 97.7?

Not surprising, considering the success of NPR / Public stations in the PPM markets in the last decade or so, coupled with decreasing time spent with the radio by under-40 listeners. And two of the stations you are comparing to have limited signals, too.

WZLX "Classic Rock" went from 5.5 down to 5.3 - Karlson and McKenzie are ok and I'm surprised they took a .2 dip!

But it is not a "dip" but a wobble, typical in any research where a few are measured and then projected into the universe.

WMJX "Magic 106.7" went from 6.4 down to 6.3 - This station is the go to for just about every workplace! They didn't take to bad of a hit but I'd pay attention.

0.1 is definitely statistical sampling error or "wobble". Nobody pays attention to 0.1 or 0.2 or even 0.3 and 0.4 wobbles as long as they are in the range typical for the station. WMJX has been in the low 6's to low 7's for nearly a decade since the PPM was introduced, and the wobbles are to a greater extent without any explanation other than wobble.

WROR "Boston's Greatest Hits" went from 7.2 down to 7.1 - Again it's kind of funny that Beasley took a hit of .1

Again, a wobble of 0.1 is not a "hit" and is normal and without cause for concern unless part of a multi-book erosion over a prolonged period.

Wait a minute, not so fast. Although the ratings are more accurate there are still issues. Due to the way the PPM captures data, the initial measurements converted stations’ ratings from long time spent listening to high Cume. This resulted in a significant negative change in most stations’ deliveries.

The change came from accurate reporting. A memory based survey, such as the diary or recall, causes listeners to round and average listening. The diary may have shown "9 AM to 5 PM" listening to an at-work friendly station. In truth, those 8 hours were more like 3 hours taking into account breaks, bathroom visits, phone calls, meetings, conversations, stepping away from the radio, lunch, etc.

Thus much lower TSL for most stations... on the order of 40% or more.

Then there is cume. Memory based surveys do not do well at picking up stations that are second or third choices. Folks just don't remember them. But the PPM does pick up such listening, and so for most mass appeal formats, cume went up. But, for niche stations like smooth jazz, there was, it turned out, little secondary forgotten "phantom cume". So TSL went down and cume did not increase. So the format disappeared. Reality bites.

This, in turn, changed cost-per-points in PPM measured markets. Most stations refused to adjust their rates when the new measurements were implemented.

No, the agencies adjusted what they would pay and stations had to suck it. The PPM showed 40% less Persons Using Radio, and agencies did not decide to pay what it "used to be worth" when they had better metrics. The thing is that the PPM hit in the same year as the Great Recession, so the 40% reduction in radio revenue nationally was masked by the recession... when in fact much had to do with the PPM and lowered PURs.

It is clearly evident that PPM is not working and stations are suffering because of it!

Stations buy ratings because agencies demand metrics. Agencies demanded the PPM for faster, more granular delivery. Radio did not want to pay 60% to 70% more for ratings, but the industry bit the bullet because the clients in the big markets demanded it. The PPM showed lower PURs, and lower AQH persons and lower ratings (buyers use rating, not share), so they pay less.
 
The decline of WBOS is due to it being a boring station, musically and otherwise.
It is no WFNX. I listened to WFNX, because I discovered new, exciting music there, presented by intelligent, funny, and passionate DJ's.
Please don't give me the argument that WFNX only had a 1.7 share on average.

No argument here, WFNX with a hampered signal from Medford and a translator that helped them in the financial district was pretty darn good if you ask me.

And some of the most talented people in Boston radio went thru those decrepit studios in the armpit of the universe, Central Square Lynn.

Somewhere along the way, someone at Greater Media decided WBOS could run on autopilot and make money, and it did for a while.

At some point Beasley is going to figure out it is under performing and not carrying their share of the freight. Greater Media may have owned WBOS for short money, Beasley can not make that claim.

The question then is, what can they put there that will up the cash flow that isn't already being done by them, or someone else better?
 
WKAF "The New 97.7" went from 1.9 down to 1.7 - This was a shock because everywhere I go I hear people listening to 97.7 and they seem very active in the community.

A station that has barely broken into the 2's.....has been on the air for less than a year...with a dificient signal...and you hear it on EVERYWHERE you go?

You must have a limited lifestyle and social circle! ;-)




WBOS "Alt 92.9" went from 2.1 down to 1.9 -
WKAF "The New 97.7" went from 1.9 down to 1.7 -
WBWL "The Bull" went from 2.7 down to 2.6 -
WODS "Amp Radio" went from 3.0 down to 2.8 -
WBUR "Boston University" went from 4.5 down to 4.0 -
WGBH went from 4.4 down to 4.2 -
WZLX "Classic Rock" went from 5.5 down to 5.3 -
WMJX "Magic 106.7" went from 6.4 down to 6.3 -
WROR "Boston's Greatest Hits" went from 7.2 down to 7.1 -


You are making vast generalizations from changes of 0.1 and 0.2.

Your realize that a 0.1 difference could be statistically be like comparing a 2.19 and a 2.20.
 
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A station that has barely broken into the 2's.....has been on the air for less than a year...with a dificient signal...and you hear it on EVERYWHERE you go?

You must have a limited lifestyle and social circle! ;-)

Why the half witted sarcasm wimmm off of one man's observation?

I hear WKAF in more Ubers than most, seems like it's a diverse, excited listener base. They've got a pretty healthy 300k plus cume for a weak signal..

I hear Magic everywhere too in buildings, if that helps but just my personal observation, I'm no cynic..
 
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Why the half witted sarcasm wimmm off of one man's observation?


OK...Guilty as charged. ;-)

Kinda reminds me though of Pauline Kael's quote from after the 1972 election: "I don't know how Nixon won. No one I know voted for him."

Problems arise when we take our own perspective for actual statistical research. ;-)

No bad intentions....it all in good fun. ;-)

BTW...I *love* WKAF...it's one of my favorite stations now. I just hope it catches on enough to make it sustainable...and that the CBS/Entercom merger doesn't kill it.

It has put a new option and added to the variety on the FM dial.
 
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