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The future of O.T.A.

I probably, no - definitely, listen to more radio now than I ever have. But I listen exclusively to OTA stations who stream online from outside my market.

How am I measured as a listener?

You are measured for online listen is measured via Triton or even the new Nielsen all-media metrics in a test phase now.

And if you are in a PPM market, any listening to a station, anywhere, that is PPM encoded, is measured by Nielson Audio.
 
As finite as space. My point is the ownership limits are man made, and haven't been changed in 20 years. In the meantime, the government has forced hundreds of new signals into that same small band. It's time to adjust the ownership limits to account for all those new signals.

Are we talking about the maximum number of signals to be crammed into a given band or the number of such signals that one owner could own?
 
Are we talking about the maximum number of signals to be crammed into a given band or the number of such signals that one owner could own?

What have I said over and over? Ownership limits. That's what I was talking about in every post I've made in this thread. OWNERSHIP.
 
The "auto malls" were actually created by the cities trying to locate a major source of sales tax revenue in their jurisdictions. It became so dealer-eat-dealer in the Phoenix metro area that now you pay sales tax based upon the buyers city of residence rather than the physical location of the seller. Nevertheless, big areas catering to car sales and repair are easier to legislate and develop than scattered shops across the valley.

I have asked several dealers whether or not co-locating stores in giant malls is a good selling point and they all told me it doesn't matter much. It is very unusual for buyers to visit dealers selling vehicles not closely related by cost. Most said buyers were drawn in by price (generic car buyers) or reputation so they don't expect a Chevrolet sedan lookee lou to walk next door to the BMW store and comparison shop.

Restaurants in my area tend to be either free standing or in some sort of mall environment. Most of the big malls here tend to have stores in the center and restaurants on the outer access roads. Unlike car shoppers, diners probably do take advantage of the nearby theaters and other entertainment venues and everybody prospers.

Edit: I forgot to add that the dealers I talked to were part of big dealer chains. Each store handled one or more specific lines but they were all owned by a corporate master. They said it is also easier to located the corporate management staff in one of the stores and have the remainder a quick golf cart ride away.

Your thinking is inaccurate or reflects old thinking and shopping customs of less progressive boomers.

Restaurants: If you are an Olive Garden or Red Lobster type of fast-food-with-table-service, locating in malls was very popular in a specific era which has ended. Malls are failing all over the place, as all kinds of factors like the failure of anchor tenants (think Sears and J C Penny) high retail costs vs. online, high rents that include a share of sales and smaller shops with small selections and such have changed the way people use malls.

http://www.businessinsider.com/death-of-the-american-mall-2016-2is one of hundreds of articles about the rapid collapse of traditional malls.

Mid-range and fast food places built tend to cluster or be located in big box centers today as opposed to malls. One reason many restaurants are clustered is that, just like retail, they like being on roads where there is plenty of traffic and exposure.

Car dealers: I have been calling on car dealers for decades and even subscribed to publications like Car Dealer and Auto Dealer Today. The attraction of auto malls is fundamentally not wanting to be the dealer that a special trip is needed for. Most people have multiple options within a price range, as well as several model choices within each brand and they are more likely to comparison shop if they can see multiple cars in the same area. Only if they do not find what they want will they venture beyond the convenience of an auto dealer collection (many of these are simply a mile or so of main street where gradually dealers have congregated, not formal malls with one landlord).

Sales tax has long been based on the location of the buyer in most states... just like the way we pay taxes on online purchases. Sales tax revenue almost everywhere is allocated from the state level down to the local municipalities, so all the sharks get fed.
 
What have I said over and over? Ownership limits. That's what I was talking about in every post I've made in this thread. OWNERSHIP.

Then why were "signals" brought up? Signals have nothing in particular with ownership rules.
 


Restaurants: If you are an Olive Garden or Red Lobster type of fast-food-with-table-service, locating in malls was very popular in a specific era which has ended. Malls are failing all over the place, as all kinds of factors like the failure of anchor tenants (think Sears and J C Penny) high retail costs vs. online, high rents that include a share of sales and smaller shops with small selections and such have changed the way people use malls.


Perhaps in Jasper Junction but not here. Aside from some outdoor malls there is only one modern major indoor mall that has been repurposed and the remainder are cash cows. That one mall was located in a neighborhood that had deteriorated significantly over the years due mainly to illegal immigration.

There are many restaurants located on the site of a major mall however there are many more located in strip malls or stand a lone locations. I am thinking only of real sit-down restaurants and not fast food outlets.


Sales tax has long been based on the location of the buyer in most states... just like the way we pay taxes on online purchases. Sales tax revenue almost everywhere is allocated from the state level down to the local municipalities, so all the sharks get fed.

Some years ago Arizona residents paid sales tax in effect at the location where the transaction took place and they still do in regular retail stores. Cities fought long and hard to develop and attract car dealers because of this. Up until about one year ago a dealer in the West Valley was still advertising "lowest sales tax rates" in his advertising even though buyers would actually pay the effective rate at their residence. It wasn't that long ago.
 
What makes you think more regulation will help? There are no ownership regulations in any other business. WalMart can own as many stores as they want Trump can build as many hotels as he wants. Broadcasting is one of the few businesses where the government restricts the number of outlets. Viacom has no restrictions on the number of cable channels. Even Sirius has no government regulations on the number of channels they can offer. Their only limitation is bandwidth. Perhaps the lack of growth in radio is because the government has placed caps on how big it can grow. Don't you think that might be the issue?


Well on the TV side I seen TV Station owners like Sinclair and Nexstar hire or have other groups/subcontractors buy TV stations and Sinclair goes in for the LMA and SSA with the owners to air content.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deerfield_Media
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cunningham_Broadcasting

Deerfield and Cunningham carries LMA and SSA contracts with Sinclair

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_Broadcasting
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Broadcasting

Marshall and Mission Broadcasting carries LMA and SSA Contracts with Nexstar. And in these cases these companies were there simply to get around the TV ownership limits with the FCC.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Spirit_Media

American Spirit Media carries LMA and SSA's contracts with Raycom.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KZDG

One of the few cases where it did happen on radio was when KZDG San Francisco a CBS Radio(Soon to be part of Entercom) owns 1550 AM San Francisco but Cinemaya Media hold the contract to operate the station on 1550 AM for now until entercom is ordered to remove stations to meet ownership caps.
 
What do they own then?

One topic began talking about the number of signals in the current band definition.

Then another kind of split off talking about ownership of broadcast licenses within a given market.

At this point I am sorely confused and really don't care any longer.
 
One of the few cases where it did happen on radio was when KZDG San Francisco a CBS Radio(Soon to be part of Entercom) owns 1550 AM San Francisco but Cinemaya Media hold the contract to operate the station on 1550 AM for now until entercom is ordered to remove stations to meet ownership caps.

The LMA developed in radio before it was employed in TV to any great extent. Hundreds of sales over the last two decades have been initiated as LMA agreements beginning at the time of filing and ending when the sale closed. A considerable number of stations have operated as long-term LMA agreements as well; the recent "stink" about Radio China on AM stations in the US was based on third party LMAs that rented stations and then contracted with RCI.

JSAs are less common, but a good example was the Clear Channel JSA of the two Indie 103 frequencies in LA in conjunction with Entravision some years ago; it ended when ownership caps we defined to include attribution for JSAs and LMAs.
 
Perhaps in Jasper Junction but not here. Aside from some outdoor malls there is only one modern major indoor mall that has been repurposed and the remainder are cash cows. That one mall was located in a neighborhood that had deteriorated significantly over the years due mainly to illegal immigration.

A slew of articles from major business journals like Business Week and Forbes are available online. All show that sales per square foot are off nearly universally and that predominantly mall based pennants like The Limited are closing, along with many outlets of major anchors like Macy's, Sears, J.C. Penny, etc. The decline in sales of other prime mall outlets like Barnes & Noble and the closing B. Dalton and smaller booksellers as well as places like The Sharper Image have seriously affected mall income which is significantly based in percentages of sales.

But the biggest issue is the rise of online shopping. Read the articles that show that smaller, high cost per square foot mall stores can't have the selection of online stores and younger generations are forsaking them in droves. Add in the already crippling effect of the Big Box stores going back to the first Best Buy and Toys R Us and we just don't see the sales of even two decades ago.

The best indicator is to ask, "How many new malls are being built". The answer is "practically none".

And that is in many cities, large and small.
 


A slew of articles from major business journals like Business Week and Forbes are available online. All show that sales per square foot are off nearly universally and that predominantly mall based pennants like The Limited are closing, along with many outlets of major anchors like Macy's, Sears, J.C. Penny, etc. The decline in sales of other prime mall outlets like Barnes & Noble and the closing B. Dalton and smaller booksellers as well as places like The Sharper Image have seriously affected mall income which is significantly based in percentages of sales.

But the biggest issue is the rise of online shopping. Read the articles that show that smaller, high cost per square foot mall stores can't have the selection of online stores and younger generations are forsaking them in droves. Add in the already crippling effect of the Big Box stores going back to the first Best Buy and Toys R Us and we just don't see the sales of even two decades ago.

The best indicator is to ask, "How many new malls are being built". The answer is "practically none".

And that is in many cities, large and small.

Is Phoenix an appreciably older market than most others? Maybe there's an anomalous cluster of 70-somethings there that's keeping the big-mall business model vibrant while it struggles to maintain a pulse elsewhere?

I can tell you that my local big mall (Westfield Meriden) is in miserable shape -- many vacancies, a half-full food court that even McDonald's gave up on, nearly lost Best Buys and may still, sweating out JC Penney's and Macy's future, etc. etc. It doesn't even draw the after-school teenage crowd anymore -- a ghost town on weekdays, only slightly better on weekends. I was there on a weekday a few weeks ago and grabbed a bite at Sarku Japan, one of the food-court survivors. There couldn't have been more than a couple of dozen others eating, acres of empty tables, and this was right around noon. I guess many of the people who would have been there 10 years ago are either dead or are finding what they want much cheaper on Amazon.
 
The best indicator I have is just looking at the people who frequent the malls. They are all young and they are there in droves - at least in my part of the world. In addition to the stores there are now mega-theaters and tons of food outlets to keep attracting people. There does seem to be turnover in the smaller shops but that is nothing new although the pace might be. Last time I walked though my local mall it was shoulder to shoulder and several major makeovers or new outlets under construction. And yes, I have heard about the big box stores having problems but Commander Cheetos current favorite Nordstroms seems to be doing great even without Ivanka's line and that is the anchor at my local mall. Sears has been declining for decades now and Kmart never was part of the big mall scene here. The Apple Store alone must make 10X what Sears has made recently.
 
We're getting off the radio subject here but one last comment which I read about last night and that was that some mall operators are actually wishing for Sear's and other big box anchors to fail. They are dividing up those giant stores into smaller ones and charging more per square foot in rent than they could make from the big anchors. Not sure this is a national trend but it was an interesting perspective.
 
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Is Phoenix an appreciably older market than most others? Maybe there's an anomalous cluster of 70-somethings there that's keeping the big-mall business model vibrant while it struggles to maintain a pulse elsewhere?

Exactly the opposite. Phoenix metro is one of the youngest demos in the USA - even considering oldster enclaves such as Sun City. Interestingly, Scottsdale is one of the oldest but its major mall is snooty upper class and one of the most expensive places to shop in all the land. No chance of them going out of business.
 
CBS has decided to focus on content according to several industry articles written. Radio no longer fit in with their business model.

Multiple station ownership has saved radio. Before 1996 the state of 1 AM/1FM was not helping the industry. Thing were looking grim, and many stations were on the brink of failure.

Old outdated AM/FM rules ownership and engineering) need to be rescinded. It will help the industry and (stations) in general.
 
I'm not convinced that we need more consolidation. I think some of it was very necessary, and we have a lot of signals that are still on the air that would have gone silent years ago had we stayed with the old rules. At the same time the feeding frenzy got a little ridiculous.
 
CBS has decided to focus on content according to several industry articles written. Radio no longer fit in with their business model.

Partly true. Towers and transmitters no longer fit with that model. At some point, CBS will start selling TV stations. Same with ABC and NBC.

CBS will still be involved with radio in creating content. CBS Radio News is still part of CBS. CBS Sports Radio is still partly owned by CBS. This is very similar to how ABC News Radio, ESPN Radio, and Radio Disney are still owned by Disney.
 
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I'm not convinced that we need more consolidation. I think some of it was very necessary, and we have a lot of signals that are still on the air that would have gone silent years ago had we stayed with the old rules. At the same time the feeding frenzy got a little ridiculous.

I'm heavily in favor of repealing the newspaper cross ownership rules. I think the repeal will be good for radio and for newspapers. It will improve news coverage. It will put the focus on content creation, which newspapers do well.

I also think it's time to remove AM stations from market caps. Companies are being encouraged to add FM translators to their AM stations, so it's obvious the FCC has given up on AM. If that's going to be FCC policy, then why penalize companies for owning AM stations?
 
Exactly the opposite. Phoenix metro is one of the youngest demos in the USA - even considering oldster enclaves such as Sun City. Interestingly, Scottsdale is one of the oldest but its major mall is snooty upper class and one of the most expensive places to shop in all the land. No chance of them going out of business.

The US median age in metro areas is 34.9 years.

Phoenix has an average of 33.2. Of the group of cities that include LA, San Diego, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston and Atlanta, Phoenix has the oldest group, with others coming in as in the 32's. Rust belt cities like Buffalo and Rochester are in the upper 30's.

The ones I named are sunbelt cities, where living is attractive to younger, more mobile people. And, particularly, they are magnets for new immigrants. Phoenix is now one-third Hispanic, and we know that Hispanic families tend to be larger, swinging the balance on median age downwards with more children in households.

Scottsdale has a much higher median age as the costs there prevent it filling with younger entry level job holders. Older people have more of a "mall mentality". Millennials and immigrants don't.
 
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