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Thread: Radio stocks

  1. #141

    Re: Stock price

    Quote Originally Posted by SirRoxalot

    Citadel stock closed at 17 cents today, down from 19.
    If there was a correlation between the revenues of an individual station and stock price, the stock would not have dropped to that level in the first place.

    There are two things affecting radio stock price now, and you'll find this in Tom Taylor's stories over the past few weeks: A complete collapse in the advertising market, which is affecting all ad-supported media including Google (which is down more than 50% in the last six weeks), and high debt at a time when credit is hard to get. The companies with the most debt have the lowest stock price. Stations are trying to lower costs in order to qualify for refinancing on their debt. Once they get their refinancing, they can hire back the employees they need, most of whom will still be available. This is similar to what sports teams do when they need to meet the salary cap.

  2. #142
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    Re: Speaking of Hatchet

    Quote Originally Posted by SirRoxalot
    Isn't it funny that your examples never have call letters or markets, and, in general, none of your opinions have any "support documents."

    Unlike you, who ignores the "support documents" provided because you have your own super secret studies that show different results than information posted by Arbitron.
    No, I simply have the subscriber data or have the Arbitron studies for PPM, which now covers all the top 10 markets, where 30% of all of America's radio ad revenue is generated. And I have cited data from PPM, as well as historic data (mostly Arbitron) going back to the 60's that is available to anyone who does a bit of research.

    The 7-Midnight guy was Tom Tiberi at WGRZ - 97-Rock in Buffalo. A friend inside - a long-timer whom I trust - tells me that Buffalo, and especially 97-Rock, are cash cows for Citadel, especially since the ABC "merger".
    There is no WGRZ. Maybe you mean WGRF? In any case, I do not see how a station with declining or flat billing over the last 5 years in market 52 can really help Citadel overall. Or a market where CDL bills roughly $18 million in a company where the last year's total billing was $892 million? That's about 2% of the company revenues... Or, on an EBITDA basis, let's say Buffalo has a 35% margin, rather typical in that billing range and market size... meaning they made about $6 million in BCF... yet the whole company made $262 million in EBITDA, making Buffalo, again, the contributor of around 2.5% of EBITDA.

    Is that specific enough for you?

    Obviously, I can't provide the results of anyone's perceptual research or music testing or callout. Like 95% of research done in business, it is proprietary and confidential. The funny thing is that, when i explain how a broad perceptual, such as a format search, is done, you instantly discard the results. You are not a researcher, yet you dispute professional recruits. You are not a programmer, yet you dispute interpretation and implementation. In Spanish we have an expression for such cases... "Eres como el perro de Ortelano, que ni come ni deja comer." Or, "You are like Joe's dog... it neither eats nor lets the others eat either. "

    Let's hear your research and programming techniques. Something beyond, "It's wrong" or "we need more DJs."

    I'm guessing you are a DJ who was let go, and can not get new employment because you are indisciplined and won't follow the format and your supervisors and talk too much.

    And GM is at the lowest point it has been since W.W. II. Microsoft is off something like 86% from it's high, and is around $19 today.


    I'm trying to recall ANYBODY touting the genius of American Automotive management - or unions for that matter. At least GM isn't in danger of being delisted.

    I could list dozens of companies that have hugely deflated stock prices. GM is not alone.

    Better check your math. Microsoft hit $58 during the dot-com boom.
    You are correct. I missed the stock split, as it peaked around $119 pre-split, per Morningstar.

    It's now at $19. That's about 33% of its highest value, a spike in 1999. It's lowest number was actually around $17 last week... so the drop isn't as drastic as you make it out to be. See what you can do with "statistics"?
    No, that is "see what you can do if you make a mistake..." which is what I did. It has nothing to do with statistics.

    It's still a perfect example... the market cap of Microsoft far exceeds the peak market cap of all the public radio companies together. Investors lost over $600 billion on Microsoft based on its peak.

    See what you can do with statistics?

    It would cost me 111 shares of Citadel for one share of Microsoft. Know anybody that wants to make THAT trade?
    The high or low value of a share has nothing to do with the value of the company... that is determined by the fundamentals of each company and each share...

    There might be a $1 share that is a much better buy than a $75 share. The price of each share is irrelevant in most cases.
    www.americanradiohistory.com
    Broadcasting Magazine and Yearbooks, Billboard, Cash Box, R&R, Record World, Music & Media, Audio, Television/Radio Age, R&R, Duncan's American Radio, Popular Electronics, Studio Sound, Broadcast Engineering, db, and more.

  3. #143

    Hallelujah!

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidEduardo
    I simply have the subscriber data or have the Arbitron studies for PPM, which now covers all the top 10 markets, where 30% of all of America's radio ad revenue is generated. And I have cited data from PPM, as well as historic data (mostly Arbitron) going back to the 60's that is available to anyone who does a bit of research.
    So, let's forget about the other 70% of radio revenue. Who needs that? At the moment, the top 10 markets are leading the way toward BANKRUPTCY. If it wasn't for markets outside the top 10, Citadel would be in receivership. The ONLY bright spot in radio currently is in the small and mid markets - or the OTHER 70% of the business.

    There is no WGRZ. Maybe you mean WGRF?
    You are correct. It is WGRF. Slip of the keyboard. We have a WGRZ TV in Buffalo as well. The station is universally known as 97-Rock.

    In any case, I do not see how a station with declining or flat billing over the last 5 years in market 52 can really help Citadel overall. Or a market where CDL bills roughly $18 million in a company where the last year's total billing was $892 million? That's about 2% of the company revenues... Or, on an EBITDA basis, let's say Buffalo has a 35% margin, rather typical in that billing range and market size... meaning they made about $6 million in BCF... yet the whole company made $262 million in EBITDA, making Buffalo, again, the contributor of around 2.5% of EBITDA.

    Is that specific enough for you?
    Until the ABC "merger", Buffalo was Citadel's #1 or #2 biller. Since the "merger" they're a much smaller player in the company. I'm sure that Citadel would be in MUCH better shape if the former ABC stations did nearly as well percentage-wise as 97-Rock over the last 5 years.

    Irrespective of that, the point is that corporate management made a company-wide mandate that looks stupid at the local level. If Citadel wants more profit from Buffalo to support the past corporate stupidity, maybe they should let BUFFALO management decide who and what to cut, or how to increase the profit side.

    Obviously, I can't provide the results of anyone's perceptual research or music testing or callout. Like 95% of research done in business, it is proprietary and confidential. The funny thing is that, when i explain how a broad perceptual, such as a format search, is done, you instantly discard the results. You are not a researcher, yet you dispute professional recruits. You are not a programmer, yet you dispute interpretation and implementation. In Spanish we have an expression for such cases... "Eres como el perro de Ortelano, que ni come ni deja comer." Or, "You are like Joe's dog... it neither eats nor lets the others eat either. "

    Let's hear your research and programming techniques. Something beyond, "It's wrong" or "we need more DJs."

    I'm guessing you are a DJ who was let go, and can not get new employment because you are indisciplined and won't follow the format and your supervisors and talk too much.
    You know nothing of who I am, what my background is, or what sources I may have at my disposal. I have reasons to guard my identity, which means that I have to be careful to cite publicly-available studies and numbers in my responses. You cite research without disclosing methodololgy, and expect us to accept your interpretation of the results.

    I cite publicly available research, with the methodology explained, and you dispute Arbitron's interpretation of the results. Now, explain to me again why I should put implicit trust in YOUR opinion?

    And GM is at the lowest point it has been since W.W. II. Microsoft is off something like 86% from it's high, and is around $19 today.


    I'm trying to recall ANYBODY touting the genius of American Automotive management - or unions for that matter. At least GM isn't in danger of being delisted.

    I could list dozens of companies that have hugely deflated stock prices. GM is not alone.

    Better check your math. Microsoft hit $58 during the dot-com boom.
    You are correct. I missed the stock split, as it peaked around $119 pre-split, per Morningstar.
    Which Microsoft stock split are you referring to? They've split 8 times since their inception. Here are the details.

    In any case, a split makes no difference. When a stock splits, shareholders got multiple new shares that equal the value of the old share. Microsoft's decline in value takes the splits into account. BTW, Microsoft also split in 2003, going from $48.30 to $24.96. They've hovered around that number since then, and have done better than a lot of other stocks since then.

    Here's a reference chart for the rest of the viewers, so they can see Microsoft's stock price history. I wouldn't want to be accused of making numbers up.

    It's now at $19. That's about 33% of its highest value, a spike in 1999. It's lowest number was actually around $17 last week... so the drop isn't as drastic as you make it out to be. See what you can do with "statistics"?
    No, that is "see what you can do if you make a mistake..." which is what I did. It has nothing to do with statistics.
    Hallelujah. DAVID "EDUARDO" ADMITTED A MISTAKE.

    Well, it's a start.

    It's still a perfect example... the market cap of Microsoft far exceeds the peak market cap of all the public radio companies together. Investors lost over $600 billion on Microsoft based on its peak.

    See what you can do with statistics?
    Are you SURE that you want to stick with those numbers? I see what YOU can do with statistics, and I'm not impressed.

    Would you like to compare an investment in Microsoft's IPO with an investment in Citadel's (or any other radio company's) IPO?

    Here's the Microsoft result.

    It would cost me 111 shares of Citadel for one share of Microsoft. Know anybody that wants to make THAT trade?
    The high or low value of a share has nothing to do with the value of the company... that is determined by the fundamentals of each company and each share...

    There might be a $1 share that is a much better buy than a $75 share. The price of each share is irrelevant in most cases.
    There's a pithy statement that says NOTHING about how you value Citadel shares. THAT'S the point. RADIO stocks are the subject at hand, and the fundamentals are looking shakier every day. Do I have to reference Lew Dickey for you?
    Did I forget that <<sarcasm>> tag again?

  4. #144

    Re: Radio stocks

    And I thought the HD Radio boards here were filled with "love."

    Now, back to the cat fights!

  5. #145

    Re: Radio stocks

    David Eduardo character is made up, he’s a like made for TV movie. I’d be skeptical of his research and facts.

  6. #146

    Now, for something completely different...

    To be fair, David "Eduardo" is indeed a well connected corporate radio honcho. He presents the corporate point of view quite accurately.

    Now, on a completely different tack, I'd like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. Some of us have more than others to be thankful for. ALL of us have more to be thankful for than our ladies and gentlemen in Iraq and Afghanistan. Keep that in mind, and keep them in your prayers as you celebrate.
    Did I forget that <<sarcasm>> tag again?

  7. #147

    Re: Radio stocks

    David is quite real. Believe it! Ditto, SirRoxalot.

  8. #148

    Re: SS, Different Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SirRoxalot
    Screw disk jockeys. And auto workers, construction workers, factory workers, and anybody else who can be replace by automation or outsourcing to third world countries who'll be glad to work for slave wages.

    Profit is the only motive.

    Of course, it's hard to profit if you have no consumers because those people now working in the "service economy" at greatly reduced wages (while profits temporarily soar), and have no money to spend.

    Radio isn't delivering what it promised - or what it used to deliver. Advertisers and stockholders are both catching on.

    But, you continue along your current path, continue to chant the same "my survey says" mantra, and sup more of that corporate Kool-Aid. What's that about "doing the same things over and over, and expecting different results"?
    Well, Rox...you're right on one account here - profit is the only motive. And it shouldn't surprise anyone that radio companies are looking for ways to trim budgets in a down economy.

    That having been said, it's also fair to say that radio companies who are better-off (and yes, there are a few that are) are carefully trimming with scissors and the over-leveraged, buried-in-debt guys are using meat cleavers (which could lead to their undoing). There are radio operators who, believe it or not, are not heavily in debt, and not over leveraged.
    These guys are simply challenged by declining revenues due to economic conditions in their various markets.

    But, radio is delivering audience...in fact, a just recently released report showed listening up 3%. Black Friday spending also appears, by initial reports, to be up. So consumers may spend, at the right price.

    It's like I have said all along. There are good radio operators. And bad radio operators. You cannot use a "one size fits all" moniker. And a day of reckoning for the bad ones may not too far off.

  9. #149

    Re: Hallelujah!

    There's a pithy statement that says NOTHING about how you value Citadel shares. THAT'S the point. RADIO stocks are the subject at hand, and the fundamentals are looking shakier every day. Do I have to reference Lew Dickey for you?
    Stock price is determined by a LOT more than just "value". The .15 cent close today is due to high debt loads that can't be refinanced in this market. Just look at their last quarter earnings. They were PROFITABLE! Yes, a profit of $28 million, or 0.11 cents/share.

    See... in just the Q3 of this year they EARNED 11 cents/share. Makes the .15 cent share price sound deflated, doesn't it?

    Radio advertising may be having down times like everyone else, but don't look at JUST stock price to determine the success of a company. Look at their earnings reports, and then realize that a deflated stock price is most likely due to a lack of confidence in a company due to high debt load in a market where refi is nearly impossible.

    The credit crunch is what is hurting radio companies right now THE MOST! Not sales/advertising, or "needing more DJs". Read reports and realize many of these companies turn a profit.

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