Digital radio struggling in the U.S. and Canada

[700WLW]

As we can see, interest in HD Radio is on a downward spiral:

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+radio"

Compared to Satellite and Internet Radio, HD Radio generates little interest:

http://www.google.com/trends?q="hd+...io",+"internet+radio"&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

Interest in digital radio, has stalled in Canada:

"Digital radio in Canada"

"The Commission is very concerned about the stalled DRB transition. Roughly 15 of the 76 authorized stations (including the digital-only operation in Toronto) are not on the air. Some stations that once operated have since ceased operations. Few recievers have been sold, and there is no interest in expanding DRB service beyond the six cities where it exists."

http://americanbandscan.blogspot.com/2006/12/digital-radio-in-canada.html

In the U.S., after a $200,000,000 HD Radio advertising campagn, only 35,000 HD radios have been sold, not including the number of HD radios retuned:

"At today's prices, about $500 or more, they appeal mostly to technophiles. But if prices tumble as expected, sales should pick up. And if automakers start offering them, as some plan to do next year in higher-end cars, sales could surge to 4 million units in 2007 from 35,000 this year, research firm In-Stat/MDR said."

http://www.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,59203.10.html

Just as the HD Radio Alliance claimed there would be hundreds-of-thousands of HD radios sold this year, the number for next year, will not even be close to 4 million.

Even Mark Ramsey, over-estimated the number of HD radios sold:

"If you build it will they come?"

"That leaves a very, very rough estimate of 60,000 HD radios in the hands of consumers. Or - 60 radios for every HD station on the air."

http://www.hear2.com/2006/10/if_you_build_it.html

Amazon.com, the largest on-line retailer, and a main focus of the HD Radio Alliances's advertising campain for 2006, has failed miserably to generate interest in HD Radio:

"Not a good sign"

"In the Amazon category of "radios" I could not find an HD radio at all in the top-100 sellers (did I miss it?), although I found plenty of shower radios and retro radios and clock radios and radios designed to work with mp3 players."

http://www.hear2.com/2006/08/not_a_good_sign.html

A search for "HD Radio" on Amazon's best-sellers list, results in no HD radios:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/161081011/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/103-7657844-6437456

But, there are plenty of analog radios, on the best-sellers list:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172681/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/103-7657844-6437456

Meanwhile, an estimated 100,000,000 analog radios, continue to be sold every year:

"Worldwide Radio Wrestling!"

"But that will still represent a relatively small percentage of the 100 million radios sold every year."

http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase/Issue/story?oid=oid:431131

 

[Mike Walker]

Dude, did you read your own chart? Click on your first link. The trend is UP, not down. Nothing in that shows a "downward spiral". After seeing that, I skipped the rest of your class, Professor!

 

[700WLW]

Dude, did you read your own chart? Click on your first link. The trend is UP, not down. Nothing in that shows a "downward spiral". After seeing that, I skipped the rest of your class, Professor!

Dude, don't you know, how to read a graph - the trend is downwards, from 2 bars to 1 1/2 ! Nice try - you didn't want to see the truth !

 

[Mike Walker]

DUDE, all sales trends have ups and downs. The overall trend over time of YOUR graph is up. One would have to be pretty "graphically challenged" (imho) in order to describe the chart in your first link as a "downward spiral". There is NOTHING, absolutely nothing in that chart to lead a reasonable person to believe the overall trend over time is anything other than up! A small, brief downward "tick" could be caused by weather, the holiday season, global warming, or perhaps El Nino (KIDDING!) Who the hell knows? There were other downward ticks along the timeline too (duh...there always are!) Overall, it "TRENDS" only up!

If you read THAT as a "downward spiral", I am sincerely grateful you are not my stockbroker! If, as a broker, you sold THAT stock, I'd be firing you quickly!

 

[SUPERCASTER]

Dude, did you read your own chart? Click on your first link. The trend is UP, not down. Nothing in that shows a "downward spiral". After seeing that, I skipped the rest of your class, Professor!

Dude, don't you know, how to read a graph - the trend is downwards, from 2 bars to 1 1/2 ! Nice try - you didn't want to see the truth !

Based on interest indicated by Google searches, iBiquity HD Radio sales probably have peaked at 35,000/yr.
Good work, 700!

 

[Mike Walker]

And that's exactly how success will be defined as. The number of "google searches". That's what it's all about! "Good work 700!"

If Google existed in 1982, how many searches do you think there would have been for Compact Disc? Or in 1775 for "Declaration of Independence"? Or in 1962 for "Kennedy Assassination". I guess they must not have been important.

The test is, how many searches will there be ONCE PEOPLE ARE AWARE THE TECHNOLOGY EXISTS? The national ad campaign has just begun. And frankly, it needs to extend beyond JUST radio (and I've never had a paycheck IN MY LIFE that wasn't funded by radio advertising. I'm now 48. I don't expect to!) Advertising is like fertilizer...it just works better if you "spread it around" GEEZ!

 

[SUPERCASTER]

And that's exactly how success will be defined as. The number of "google searches". That's what it's all about! "Good work 700!"

If Google existed in 1982, how many searches do you think there would have been for Compact Disc? Or in 1775 for "Declaration of Independence"? Or in 1962 for "Kennedy Assassination". I guess they must not have been important.

The test is, how many searches will there be ONCE PEOPLE ARE AWARE THE TECHNOLOGY EXISTS? The national ad campaign has just begun. And frankly, it needs to extend beyond JUST radio (and I've never had a paycheck IN MY LIFE that wasn't funded by radio advertising. I'm now 48. I don't expect to!) Advertising is like fertilizer...it just works better if you "spread it around" GEEZ!

I think most people would disagree with your far fetched, contrived, fantasy analogy.
How about a more reasonable one that is not totally off planet and in a time warp?
HD Radios have been available for over 3 years and the system was promoted at least as far back as 2002. It's now old news. Almost no one cares. Many think they already have HD, and are not interested in expensive HD radios, when there are so many more beneficial hi-tech products, that work better, and yield more benefits.

 

[700WLW]

Dude, did you read your own chart? Click on your first link. The trend is UP, not down. Nothing in that shows a "downward spiral". After seeing that, I skipped the rest of your class, Professor!

Dude, don't you know, how to read a graph - the trend is downwards, from 2 bars to 1 1/2 ! Nice try - you didn't want to see the truth !

Based on interest indicated by Google searches, iBiquity HD Radio sales probably have peaked at 35,000/yr.
Good work, 700!

Thanks, SUPERCASTER ! Looks like it peaked, 3rd quarter of 2006, and now it is on its way down - Internet and Satellite Radio sure blows HD Radio away !

 

[700WLW]

And that's exactly how success will be defined as. The number of "google searches". That's what it's all about! "Good work 700!"

If Google existed in 1982, how many searches do you think there would have been for Compact Disc? Or in 1775 for "Declaration of Independence"? Or in 1962 for "Kennedy Assassination". I guess they must not have been important.

The test is, how many searches will there be ONCE PEOPLE ARE AWARE THE TECHNOLOGY EXISTS? The national ad campaign has just begun. And frankly, it needs to extend beyond JUST radio (and I've never had a paycheck IN MY LIFE that wasn't funded by radio advertising. I'm now 48. I don't expect to!) Advertising is like fertilizer...it just works better if you "spread it around" GEEZ!

I think most people would disagree with your far fetched, contrived, fantasy analogy.
How about a more reasonable one that is not totally off planet and in a time warp?
HD Radios have been available for over 3 years and the system was promoted at least as far back as 2002. It's now old news. Almost no one cares. Many think they already have HD, and are not interested in expensive HD radios, when there are so many more beneficial hi-tech products, that work better, and yield more benefits.

Google is a perfect way to determine trends, by taking non-biased, random samplings. Now, that we know iBiquity's little secret of 35000 HD radios sold, we should be able to compare year-to-year graphs of HD Radio searches. My guess, is that maybe 10000 were sold to the "gotta-have-it-now" radio geeks, 2000 promotional radios sold at a discount to stations, and 23000 to the general public. Now, let's assume, that the "radio geeks" kept their radios, but 1/4 of the general public retuned them - this gives us a pretty good bench-mark of 18000 radios, in the hands of the general public. All this, after wasting $200,000,000 in HD Radio advertising - another waste of $250,000,000 this year, will be no different.

 

[Mike Walker]

Google IS a great way to judge trends. Trends begin once awareness takes hold. There are no trends toward a technology (or other news story...no trend toward public interest) until the public is aware of it!

It would be like calling color tv a failure in 1962 (pretty damn different by '68, I'd imagine!), Cinemascope a failure in 1949, or Radar a failure in 1936. This is a simple concept. Nobody Googles what they're not aware of. I'm sure there are many technologies I'm not aware of in various fields. They're perfectly "successful", out there doing their jobs. And since I've never heard of 'em, I haven't "Googled" a single one. Simple concept...we "Google" what we've heard of to learn more.

Now were we having this conversation two years from now, if there still were this few "Googles", I might well agree it's an ominous sign. We'll see.

 

[700WLW]

Google IS a great way to judge trends. Trends begin once awareness takes hold. There are no trends toward a technology (or other news story...no trend toward public interest) until the public is aware of it!

It would be like calling color tv a failure in 1962 (pretty damn different by '68, I'd imagine!), Cinemascope a failure in 1949, or Radar a failure in 1936. This is a simple concept. Nobody Googles what they're not aware of. I'm sure there are many technologies I'm not aware of in various fields. They're perfectly "successful", out there doing their jobs. And since I've never heard of 'em, I haven't "Googled" a single one. Simple concept...we "Google" what we've heard of to learn more.

Now were we having this conversation two years from now, if there still were this few "Googles", I might well agree it's an ominous sign. We'll see.

You see, all we have to do, is track Google Trends for HD Radio - we know the peak for HD Radio this year, and now, the numbers of HD radios sold. All we have to do, is track in "relative terms" - consumer interest versus number of HD radios sold! This doesn't have to be exact science, in order to get a pretty good estimate ! I think, this has something to do with applied math !

 

[700WLW]

The test is, how many searches will there be ONCE PEOPLE ARE AWARE THE TECHNOLOGY EXISTS? The national ad campaign has just begun. And frankly, it needs to extend beyond JUST radio (and I've never had a paycheck IN MY LIFE that wasn't funded by radio advertising. I'm now 48. I don't expect to!) Advertising is like fertilizer...it just works better if you "spread it around" GEEZ!

"In-Stat: Digital Radio Set to Take Off"

"In 2006, 73 percent of respondents to an In-Stat U.S. consumer survey were aware of HD Radio on some level. "

http://beradio.com/eyeoniboc/instat-digital-radio-set/

Let's see, some here claim that few consumers know about HD Radio, and that is the reason for such anemic sales of HD radios.