Darth_vader said:"Ham is dying because no one under the age of 30 cares about using a radio to talk to the other side of the world when you can do it on a telephone, the Internet or a games console."
Yup, that's a major part of it.
Unfortunately it's probably true that young people think they can talk to the other side of the world on their cellphone/Skype/etc.. What may not be adequately passed along:
Yes, you *can* call Bulgaria on your cellphone.
Know anyone in Bulgaria?
Ham radio is a community of people, many of whom are specifically interested in communicating with other members of that community.
I think that, ironically enough, cable TV is one of ham radio's biggest challenges -- and cellphones are the other major challenge, in a completely different way.
Cable TV, because it made it possible to sell/lease a home in a place where outdoor antennas are prohibited. And cellphones, because the proliferation of the base stations they require has stiffened NIMBY resistance to any kind of visible antenna. Cellular operators have the legal facilities to (sometimes) fight it. Hams generally don't.
For the most part it's impossible to install an effective outdoor antenna, and without it many of the attractive parts of ham radio are off-limits.
"I think it will always be around in some form, as CB will always be around. But some ham bands will disappear."
Frankly, I think what'll happen as bands fall into disuse, assuming the ¢ell phone ¢ompanie$ don't make it another land-grab first, is they'll either (A) be deregulated and used as licence-free "general purpose" two-way bands á la CB/FRS/MURS, or (2) handed off to local/municipal authorities to be used for communications traffic (fire/police/ambulance, schools, hospitals etc.)
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As Keith suggests, I think the most popular ham bands are of no interest to commercial operators. HF is being abandoned en masse; LW beacons are being replaced by GPS; other discussions on this forum suggest AM broadcasting is on its death bed; the 40MHz and 150MHz commercial two-way bands have been largely emptied in favor of 800+MHz. I don't think the HF amateur bands, nor the 50, 144, or 222MHz bands, are in much danger; indeed, I can see *more* spectrum opening to amateur radio in the world below 50MHz.
The 440MHz, 1300MHz, and higher bands are at considerable risk.
I do fear you may be right about point (A) -- the possibility the FCC will give up all attempts to regulate operation below 50MHz. Although the relatively low level of activity existing in the essentially deregulated 27MHz band suggests there may simply not be enough interest in HF for this to be a problem for existing amateur operation.
After all, while the FCC may or may not enforce the requirement for a license to transmit on HF, you can be assured your local HOA *will* enforce the aesthetic regulations prohibiting the installation of the necessary antennas...