Mid Year Radio Review

Well, we’re almost halfway through 2017 and since this board has been extremely dead I thought it would be good to compare the radio landscape from Jan-May 2016 to Jan-May 2017.

Unless otherwise stated the numbers are M-Su 6a-12m average share.

The growth/decline section highlights stations that compete in that specific demo. For example, even though KNKX had one of the highest increases in persons 18-34, they aren’t mentioned because their actual share is so small.

18-34
Not a dramatic change year-to-year. KQMV continues to win in persons and women 18-34 with KISW winning in Men.

Top 5 P18-34 last year: KQMV, KISW, KJR-FM, KHTP, KNDD.
Top 5 P18-34 this year: KQMV, KHTP, KISW, KNDD, KRWM

Growth….KHTP saw a 31% gain bringing them into the top 5. KBKS was up 27% but still not in the top 5. KRWM was up 13% bringing them into the Top 5.

Declines…KKWF dropped 34% and KPLZ dropped 23%, bringing them both to a P18-34 share that is lower than that of KIRO FM and KJAQ (not good). KPWK also gave back nearly a ¼ of their 18-34 share – most coming from Women 18-34 where they lost 43%.


18-49
Again, not a lot of changes here. The top 5 from last year and this year are the same stations, with just KHTP and KJR-FM swapping spots. KQMV continues to win in persons and women with KISW winning men.

Top 5 P18-49 last year: KQMV, KISW, KJR-FM, KNDD, KHTP
Top 5 P18-49 this year: KQMV, KISW, KHTP, KNDD, KJR-FM

Growth…KBKS and KRWM are both a hair away from being in the top 5, tied at #6. KBKS growing their P18-49 by 23% and KRWM by 11%. KJAQ is right behind them, posting an impressive gain of 36% year over year.

Declines…Last year KBKS, KPWK and KKWF were tied at #7 for P18-49. While KBKS improved a rank, KPWK and KKWF weren’t so lucky. KPWK saw a 13% decrease bringing them to a tie for 12th with KZOK. For you radio newbies, when you’re a CHR and you’re tied in P18-49 with a classic rock station (let alone, the station with the oldest playlist in that format in the entire country) that’s a bad thing. But if you thought KPWK had it bad, it pales in comparison to KKWF who gave back 38% of their 18-49’s. KKWF now sits at #17, sandwiched in-between KCMS and KLSW, which is fitting because they need a come-to-Jesus.


25-54
KQMV remained #1 with persons and women, nearly identically matching their large shares from 2016. KISW still tops men. 4 of the top 5 stations for P25-54 remain, with KJAQ replacing KRWM.

Top 5 P25-54 last year: KQMV, KISW, KJR-FM, KRWM, KHTP
Top 5 P25-54 this year: KQMV, KISW, KJR-FM, KHTP, KJAQ

Growth…With a 48% increase, KUOW saw the largest growth bringing them into a tie with KRWM for #6 (up 8 ranks year-to-year). KJAQ also had an impressive increase up 41%, as did their sister KMPS up 39%. In Jan-May 2016, KMPS was ranked #17 with KKWF at #11. In Jan-May 2017, they switched spots with KMPS at #11 and KKWF at #17.

Declines…KCMS saw an erosion of over 1/3 of their A25-54 share bringing them from #7 last year to #16 this year. As mentioned earlier, KKWF also saw a large dip with A25-54, down 30%.


Mornings: Brooke & Jubal continue to dominate mornings across every imaginable demo. 18-34, 18-49, 25-54, persons, women and men, they own it all and it’s not even close. With Persons 18-34, 18-49 and nearly with Persons 25-54, Brooke & Jubal’s share is higher than that of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th ranked stations combined. I thought maybe their 25-34 numbers must be so big that they’re driving the rest of the demos, but apparently that’s not the case. If you break out Adults, Women and Men 45-54 they are #1 in all 3 by a wide margin. KISW had been the #2 to KQMV in most demos and they haven’t helped themselves so far this year. They’re down in mornings with persons and men, losing 1/3 of their Men 18-49 and ¼ of their Men 25-54 share.

Middays: KQMV, KISW, KJR-FM and KHTP do well across multiple demos in middays. KJAQ saw a 50% increase with P25-54. KIRO FM made a nice showing with Men 18-49 and 25-54. KMPS also did well with the upper end of the 25-54 demo and posted the largest P25-54 increase, up 84%.

Afternoons: KQMV wins with Women. KISW wins with Persons and Men. KNDD, KRWM, and KHTP also performed well. KUOW posted a very large 52% increase with P25-54 bringing them to the #5 spot.


Lots of information there. If this doesn't get a conversation going I'll try posting about a Robin & Maynard comeback.

iamarussianpirate said:

Lots of information there. If this doesn't get a conversation going I'll try posting about a Robin & Maynard comeback.

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So the "radio edit" of your post is that other than some minor swaps it's status quo in Seattle. Let's move on to the R&M comeback.

I appreciate the time you took to provide the details and analysis! Thank you. Don't see much analysis anymore (other than the brain-dead "duh that's OBVIOUS" crap that shows up on All Access from that research vendor), so it's nice to know what the overall scorecard looks like.

Great work and research, thanks for taking the time. KPLZ no where to be found in the top 5 anymore. What's the deal? KPWK ties with KZOK in that young demo and a loss of 43% females as well? What is wrong or what needs to get fixed over there? They way to take Jubal down is to go more music, play the hits and keep your talk, tight, with purpose and really speak to your target audience. Canned bits or wacky stunts won't get it done. If they zig you zag.

I really don't understand what's wrong over at 93.3. Unlike KBKS as a CHR, I really enjoy KPWK. They're throwing everything they've got at that station, and still not coming up with much in return. Even if it wasn't intended when the changes happened, iHeart has to be happy with the performance of Kiss.

bobdavcav said:

I really don't understand what's wrong over at 93.3. Unlike KBKS as a CHR, I really enjoy KPWK. They're throwing everything they've got at that station, and still not coming up with much in return. Even if it wasn't intended when the changes happened, iHeart has to be happy with the performance of Kiss.

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KBKS was aging as a CHR so it was a natural shift into a Hot AC/Adult CHR and it has worked for them. The shift from KUBE to KPWK looks to be a wash so far. Below is a comparison of ranks from Jan – May ’15 (one year before the flip) versus Jan – May ’17 (one year after the flip).


P 18-34 - KPWK from #5 to #8, KBKS from #7 to #5 = wash
P 18-49 - KPWK flat at #12, KBKS flat at #6 = wash
P25-54 - KPWK from #18 to #14, KBKS from #8 to #9 = improvement
W18-34 - KPWK from #3 to #4, KBKS from #5 to #3 = wash
W18-49 - KPWK from #9 to #7, KBKS from #4 to #3 = slight improvement
W25-54 - KPWK from #16 to #10, KBKS from #5 to #3 = improvement

So was the flip from KUBE to KPWK along with the conversion of KBKS into a Hot AC successful? It depends on your point of view. If I’m in management at iHeart and I want to keep my job, my spin would be that the cluster is better off than they were before the flip.

However, if the goal of the flip was to take KQMV down a few pegs, that hasn’t happened. In Jan-May ’15 KQMV was #1 in all of these demos except for P25-54 where they were #2. In Jan-May ’17 they’re #1 in all of these demos and increased their share an average of 4%.

If the goal of the flip was to make 93.3 more advertiser friendly and a less controversial buy then I guess maybe it worked. However, being ranked #14 A25-54 and #10 W25-54 isn’t going to get them on many buys to begin with.

Long story short, 16 months after iHeart spent a ton of money blowing up a heritage station and converting another, they are slightly better off than they were before, but not much.

Appreciate the insight on the ratings, Iamarussianpirate. Sounds like Rock 98.9 KVRQ is a failed effort? They don't seem to show in any of your results. Looks like KISW and KZOK still rule the rock field in Seattle.

Those are interesting observations. Given those, how long do you think they'll keep Power going before a new format comes to 93.3? I'd argue that the cluster as a whole is better off, since in Jan-May 2015 KJR had to deal with competition from the then KMCQ. It wasn't until KMCQ was sold and flipped out of the format that KJR started to do well.
Although they're off their peak, the ratings for 102.9 seem to have improved by a couple of points. As for 104.9, that seems to be a wash, though I'm not sure how to deal with a signal like that.

How long until Bob Pittman and the team there put a country signal in the Seattle market? They just had their big iHeart Country Fest not too long ago if I'm not mistaken. Add in they have Bobby Bones and Fitz is "on the beach" - keeping in mind the CBS/ Entercom deal and the fall out from that is yet to come. Could 93.3 go country? Seems the resources thrown at making 93.3 successful have yet to yield a PROI.
"being ranked #14 A25-54 and #10 W25-54 isn’t going to get them on many buys to begin with." and it sure can't last too much longer - granted they play in a younger demo so would like to see those 18-34 / 18-49 numbers then we can really see if there is a "Power" outage.

Goi said:

How long until Bob Pittman and the team there put a country signal in the Seattle market?

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So you think Seattle is such a big country market that it could handle three stations? There are those who post here who can't understand why there are TWO country stations, much less three. History has shown that when a company that owns one country station buys a company that owns the other country station, they keep both. Why? To keep out the competition. That's why Cumulus owns both country stations in Dallas. That's why I expect Entercom to keep both KMPS and The Wolf.

Bobby Bones is also syndicated to non-iHeart stations. Entercom could replace Fitz with Bobby. Although the chances of that are between zero and less than zero.

TheBigA said:

That's why I expect Entercom to keep both KMPS and The Wolf.

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Like you, I expect the two to stay together, though I could see Entercom swapping both if they got a good enough deal from another company, like Hubbard or Bonneville. As you probably remember, Bonneville made Emmis give them WIL and WKKX in St. Louis when they agreed to swap KZLA. After the Sinclair deal, Emmis really wanted to keep both country stations and swap out some of the rockers, but Bonneville wasn't going to give up KZLA for that.

"So you think Seattle is such a big country market that it could handle three stations?" - I never said that but you ASSumed that. Good job BIG A!

Goi said:

"So you think Seattle is such a big country market that it could handle three stations?" - I never said that but you ASSumed that. Good job BIG A!

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You said you want iHeart to flip a station to country. That would make three country stations. Do the math.

I'm asking you a question. Do you think Seattle could handle 3 country stations?

My question in all this is why does it seem like country is the only format where companies are willing to own more than one station in the same format? About the only other example I can think of is WCBS and WINS being both all news. The only other possible example might be WALK and WKJY. In my mind at least, those are both AC stations, though I think WALK might be classified as Hot AC. In my mind, they sound extremely similar. How can two stations sound so similar and not cannibalize each other?

bobdavcav said:

My question in all this is why does it seem like country is the only format where companies are willing to own more than one station in the same format?

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One word: Money. It's currents-based, the audience is the demo advertisers love, listeners are very loyal, and they prefer terrestrial to other platforms.

In the markets I can think of, where a company owns two stations in the country format, both of them are doing well in the ratings.

speculating that iheart is going to do something here is reasonable speculation

TheBigA said:

You said you want iHeart to flip a station to country. That would make three country stations. Do the math.

I'm asking you a question. Do you think Seattle could handle 3 country stations?

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I'm sorry I have to dumb it down.... I thought most people here already knew the obvious that 3 country won't work. I moved past the BIG E on the eye chart but apparently some folks "vision" doesn't allow them to read the smaller letters. I'm beyond the elementary and thought you were as well. I know now that we have to make known the obvious before we post so the uneducated can keep pace. Ok. CBS/ Entercom will keep one of those country sticks, the most profitable. Thus the iHeart Country station... And don't be surprised if 102.9 and 104.9 go buh-by and one of those (Alt ) moves to a full signal. I could be wrong... time will tell.

Goi said:

Ok. CBS/ Entercom will keep one of those country sticks, the most profitable. Thus the iHeart Country station.

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Suppose they're both very profitable? Why would Entercom make a decision knowing it opens the door for their competition?

As I said in my other post (which you may have missed), it's not unusual for a company to own two country stations in the same market. iHeart has that exact situation in Austin and several other markets. Cumulus is doing it in Dallas and Nashville. Steel City has two country stations in Kansas City. All of them are profitable. All of them do well in the ratings. Perhaps better than if they flipped to some other format.

102.9 was already Country once (KNBQ) and they blew that up because it was the third CW station in the market. Of the formats since, I don't think any of them have done as well as 102.9 did as a country station though.