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Netflix Chief Predicts Death Of Broadcast TV By 2030
- Thread starter crackedscreen
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While it's highly unlikely that OTA broadcast TV will totally disappear by 2030, or even 2070, I think it's a reasonable prediction that by 2030, OTA TV will be relegated to home shopping and censored reruns of programs originally shown on cable. It will be a major reversal of emphasis. Original scripted programming will almost all originate on cable channels, leaving OTA broadcasting to show reruns and cheap reality shows.
I think the migration of orginal, scripted programming maybe sooner than 2030, especially with the way these networks are pumping-up out "reality" programming. Hell, basic cable (for the most part) maybe end up with the same fate as the over-the-air networks in terms of quality of original scripted shows.
Cable's not even going to be the emphasis. Take a look at HBO opening up service to non-cable subscribers. Every premium channel will follow suit, you can be assured of that. Basic cable will offer their shows on Hulu for free. The only connectivity you're going to see within fifty years from now is broadband Internet, not cable or satellite television. OTA television will still be around for the holdouts, but you will see incredible reduction in the number of channels and tremendous change in the type of content offered. What that content is going to look like is up for debate, but broadcast TV long ago gave up the claim of standard-bearer for quality or creativity, and they're not interested in getting it back unless it's cheap and easy to produce (and no bar-raising program was ever both cheap and easy to produce).
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Remember, 2030 is only 16 years in the future. Whether the transition will take 10, 15, 20 or more years is something we'll learn in the fullness of time. But happen it will, the only real question is "how soon?"
Pretty much the only reason the networks still exist in their current form is "non-advertising revenue", including sales of series to international outlets and to streaming providers, and reverse compensation from stations, and thereby from cable bills.
The advertising market to reach 4% of America just doesn't justify the cost of Law & Order SVU and everything else NBC does in prime time.
The real question is which revenue stream craters first: the advertising or the reverse compensation. I think the reverse compensation gravy train will derail into a vat of mashed taters long before 2030, affecting both cablers and broadcasters.
The advertising market to reach 4% of America just doesn't justify the cost of Law & Order SVU and everything else NBC does in prime time.
The real question is which revenue stream craters first: the advertising or the reverse compensation. I think the reverse compensation gravy train will derail into a vat of mashed taters long before 2030, affecting both cablers and broadcasters.
Never underestimate the will of the people to save a dollar. If you've been reading anything on today's antenna giveaway with WUSA in D.C. you'll see that terrestrial television viewing is alive and well.
To quote one guy who stood in line, "...we do have cable but we want to get rid of it…we don't feel it's worth the money."
Back in 2010 when KMPH-Fresno did a similar giveaway event with Antennas Direct they had a line of people that extended the perimeter of an entire city block and began forming around 3 AM. So, if anything, it's pay TV that is having its rear-end handed to it.
And then there is ATSC 3.0 which is due to be standardized by late 2015. A lot of innovation and future-proofing will be packed into that broadcast standard, including compatibility with LTE technology and IP delivery.
So Reed Hastings is blowing smoke and making, what could best be described as, a self-serving prediction. He doesn't know what the future will hold for free over-the-air TV. So far, it has been slowly but steadily growing.
But I'll tell you one thing: the word "free" scares the crap out of people like him.
http://www.wusa9.com/story/money/consumer/2014/11/23/antenna-direct-free-tv/19460965/
To quote one guy who stood in line, "...we do have cable but we want to get rid of it…we don't feel it's worth the money."
Back in 2010 when KMPH-Fresno did a similar giveaway event with Antennas Direct they had a line of people that extended the perimeter of an entire city block and began forming around 3 AM. So, if anything, it's pay TV that is having its rear-end handed to it.
And then there is ATSC 3.0 which is due to be standardized by late 2015. A lot of innovation and future-proofing will be packed into that broadcast standard, including compatibility with LTE technology and IP delivery.
So Reed Hastings is blowing smoke and making, what could best be described as, a self-serving prediction. He doesn't know what the future will hold for free over-the-air TV. So far, it has been slowly but steadily growing.
But I'll tell you one thing: the word "free" scares the crap out of people like him.
http://www.wusa9.com/story/money/consumer/2014/11/23/antenna-direct-free-tv/19460965/
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...bullspit to this noise. Web hasn't ended cable/satellite, which hasn't ended broadcast TV, which hasn't ended radio, which hasn't ended audio recording, which hasn't ended motion pictures, which hasn't ended stage performances, which hasn't ended the printed page. All have adapted, and will continue to adapt, for the remainder of our lives and those of our children and grandchildren...
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The thing is, the "adaptation" some of us are predicting means the death of OTA Television as we now know it. OTA broadcast network television could be as dead as network radio broadcasts of scripted comedies and dramas were by the late 1950's. Sure, radio didn't "die" when it switched from programs to programming, but it was totally unrecognizable. The major networks will cease to function as the primary source of content for OTA television within a few decades. They might survive as business enterprises in a drastically changed mode of operation. But the days of the entire nation having shows like "The Big Bang Theory" available to watch simultaneously on Thursday nights will come to an end.
Future generations will not know about tuning in at a particular time to watch a show that was a regular viewing habit.
F
FredLeonard
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All of a sudden, I hope it dies sooner.
I started watching Scorpion on my Tivo a little while ago. A few minutes in, the incredibly pompous and annoying Scott Pelley comes on and says they are going to take the Ferguson, MO grand jury decision live and the program will continue where it left off when it's over. So, instead of the show, we get an extended period of courtroom rigamarole and talking head bloviation. Then back to the show - only the record will end at 10pm and cut off the rest of the show. They could have put the decision on a crawl and then done an instant news special at 11:35 - but nooooo. Instead CBS again screws up the prime time schedule - even though they aren't running a football game.
This is broadcast television - in contrast to on-demand television. The issue is not whether television comes in over the air, via cable or via satellite. It's whether they control the schedule or you do. Not only will future generations not have to tune in when they say so, they won't be able to interrupt or preempt programming for something they decide you should be more interested in.
I started watching Scorpion on my Tivo a little while ago. A few minutes in, the incredibly pompous and annoying Scott Pelley comes on and says they are going to take the Ferguson, MO grand jury decision live and the program will continue where it left off when it's over. So, instead of the show, we get an extended period of courtroom rigamarole and talking head bloviation. Then back to the show - only the record will end at 10pm and cut off the rest of the show. They could have put the decision on a crawl and then done an instant news special at 11:35 - but nooooo. Instead CBS again screws up the prime time schedule - even though they aren't running a football game.
This is broadcast television - in contrast to on-demand television. The issue is not whether television comes in over the air, via cable or via satellite. It's whether they control the schedule or you do. Not only will future generations not have to tune in when they say so, they won't be able to interrupt or preempt programming for something they decide you should be more interested in.
Along those lines, "Dancing with the Stars" fans went ballistic last night over ABC's decision to interrupt DWTS with the Ferguson decision announcement:
http://entertainthis.usatoday.com/2...rguson-interruption-finals-for-ferguson-news/
For those in remote parts of the country satellite is the only delivery method for high-speed internet, so it won't be going away.
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That's about as safe a prediction as anyone can make. I don't think anyone disagrees that as long as you throw in the disclaimer "in some form", any prediction about OTA television is reasonable. And, given the nature of corporate mergers and name changes, the chances of Netflix no longer existing under that name are about even. So, that prediction is simultaneously wisely accurate and totally meaningless.
Which is exactly why, with the single exception of live sports, all my household's TV watching is done via downloads.
The future is notoriously difficult to predict. I grew up in the 60s, when they predicted cancer would be 100% curable by 1975; and that by 2000, every home would have a server-sized computer in a utility closet that would run our homes - turn on lights, vacuum the floor, schedule meals, etc. So they predicted home computers, but not of the PC and Mac variety. And NOBODY in that era predicted the internet.
Future predictions of the early 50s were even more hilarious - like the illustration showing dad, mom, and the kids in 50s clothes (dad in a hat and smoking a pipe) - piloting his family around in a flying car.
I remember that in the early 1990s - the death of video stores was predicted - but not by the internet or a CD delivery service like Netflix, but by cable and satellite TV on demand, which they predicted would have a library of tens of thousands of movies. So the first part of that prediction turned out to be true, but not the second part.
So will the regular and standard cable networks eventually be either extinct, or very different from the current model? Without a doubt. But nobody can really predict what forms they will take.
Future predictions of the early 50s were even more hilarious - like the illustration showing dad, mom, and the kids in 50s clothes (dad in a hat and smoking a pipe) - piloting his family around in a flying car.
I remember that in the early 1990s - the death of video stores was predicted - but not by the internet or a CD delivery service like Netflix, but by cable and satellite TV on demand, which they predicted would have a library of tens of thousands of movies. So the first part of that prediction turned out to be true, but not the second part.
So will the regular and standard cable networks eventually be either extinct, or very different from the current model? Without a doubt. But nobody can really predict what forms they will take.
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