Ideal Demographic

vchimpanzee said:

I was 23 and that second group was certainly my preference.

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I was 6 and not into either group at that time. When I was 11 or 12, I started becoming interested in both groups, except for Van Halen.

landtuna said:

A comment was made earlier (by Michael Hagerty I think) as to 'advertisers' as if they were one solid block. Does no one consider that advertisers are selling vastly different products and, as such, might have an interest in people of different ages?

Wouldn't an advertising campaign for toothpaste be far different than one for Buicks?

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Sorry, but such rational common sense is an anathema to radio suits who only know how to deal in sound-bite sized profundities issued as if they were holy writ.

A professional salesman knows he has to seek out customers, not sit back and wait for them to knock on his door. If a professional salesman is selling airtime on a radio station, he seeks out those who have products to sell to his station's audience, regardless of what that audience is. A good, professional salesman will find the businesses that need to reach his station's audience no matter who that audience is, and will persuade them that his station is a good way to reach the customers that they want to reach.

It is true that if you are trying to sell Proactiv via radio spots, you need to find a radio station with an audience of listeners who have excessive spots. If your audience is mostly grumpy old assholes, then you need to reach out to people selling Preparation H, the famous medicine for assholes. If your audience is mostly old farts, then you look to people trying to sell products like Bean-O.

Apparently fans of "America's Best Music" buy lots of auto parts.

And in my area specifically, where it is clear the commercials are local, lots of hicks have tractors that they're having trouble starting and may need to buy a new one.

Avid Listener said:

Sorry, but such rational common sense is an anathema to radio suits who only know how to deal in sound-bite sized profundities issued as if they were holy writ.

A professional salesman knows he has to seek out customers, not sit back and wait for them to knock on his door. If a professional salesman is selling airtime on a radio station, he seeks out those who have products to sell to his station's audience, regardless of what that audience is. A good, professional salesman will find the businesses that need to reach his station's audience no matter who that audience is, and will persuade them that his station is a good way to reach the customers that they want to reach.

It is true that if you are trying to sell Proactiv via radio spots, you need to find a radio station with an audience of listeners who have excessive spots. If your audience is mostly grumpy old assholes, then you need to reach out to people selling Preparation H, the famous medicine for assholes. If your audience is mostly old farts, then you look to people trying to sell products like Bean-O.

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Spoken like someone who's never actually done it.

The trouble is that radio stations cost money to run, and once past breaking even (no small feat in itself), your next goal, be you a mom and pop or a conglomerate, is to make a profit.

Agencies run from audiences over 55 like the plague. Your Preparation H bit is clever, but they use an agency and when they do advertise, they target women of childbearing age (hemhorroids being a frequent unfortunate side-effect of pregnancy). Do older people need Preparation H? Yes. But they know it. Come to think of it, name (off the top of your head, without Googling) another product for that purpose. Preparation H has Coke, Xerox and Kleenex-level name recognition.

That leaves you with local direct sales. And here's how that works (from someone who's been there a time or two):

You pound the pavement looking for the businesses that might be a good fit with your upper-demo audience. Maybe a third of the obvious ones buy in. Just enough, creatively sold, to fill most of your avails. The creative selling includes low spot rates, but you figure you can increase what you charge as your ratings go up.

The ratings go up. You move to increase your price per spot and a third or more of your sponsors scream cancellation.

Another third say they'll go with it, but they'd damn well better see increased business for the extra bucks. What happens then? Well, you've picked the smallest segment of the population in your town imaginable, and most of those folks know about these businesses and have been using them for years (just like Preparation H), so the big jump in business never comes. And they cancel.

Replacements for the lost sponsors are nigh-impossible to find...you sold the ones that were in any way receptive. And your remaining third? They've noticed fewer spots, lower demand, and they're wondering why they're paying more.

Finally, the business side of your brain kicks in and you realize that if you'd simply picked a profitable niche within a demographic for which there is demand from the agencies, you could have focused your energies on putting together the best radio station, saved thousands in man-hours and simply written up the orders and cashed the checks. Which is when you change format, as the vast majority of stations swimming upstream demographically do.

landtuna said:

KOY should have remained on 550. 550 and 620 are the only two really good signals on AM any longer.

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KOY had demographic trouble before leaving 550 for 1230. It was almost entirely 65+....on its way to the 80+ it ended up with, and the signal wouldn't have changed that. It was a smart business move to pull KFYI up to 550, and they should have done that first, rather than the couple-year experiment of moving KGME to 550 and then swapping it with KFYI at 910.

michael hagerty said:

Spoken like someone who's never actually done it.

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Actually, I have been a professional salesman for much of my career, and often sold products in a B2B environment that had a limited appeal that forced all of us to have to put forth an extra effort to make sales. Yes, I used some examples to make a point with a little bit of humor. Yes, I know that sitting back waiting for agencies to throw money at you is much easier than going out and finding customers. And yes, I am aware that picking "a profitable niche within a demographic for which there is demand from the agencies" is the easy way out, unless all of the other businesses in your industry have already staked out their claims in those niches and you lack the means to assault them head-to-head.

The thing is, sales is a continuing, on-going process. It's not a one-time event. You don't just land some key accounts and then sit back and let the money just roll in. Unless you're in a totally static, dead community with no economic growth, there will always be old businesses closing and new businesses starting. There is always new opportunity, if you're willing to simply look for it.

Avid Listener said:

Actually, I have been a professional salesman for much of my career, and often sold products in a B2B environment that had a limited appeal that forced all of us to have to put forth an extra effort to make sales. Yes, I used some examples to make a point with a little bit of humor. Yes, I know that sitting back waiting for agencies to throw money at you is much easier than going out and finding customers. And yes, I am aware that picking "a profitable niche within a demographic for which there is demand from the agencies" is the easy way out, unless all of the other businesses in your industry have already staked out their claims in those niches and you lack the means to assault them head-to-head.

The thing is, sales is a continuing, on-going process. It's not a one-time event. You don't just land some key accounts and then sit back and let the money just roll in. Unless you're in a totally static, dead community with no economic growth, there will always be old businesses closing and new businesses starting. There is always new opportunity, if you're willing to simply look for it.

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Avid, first let me say I respect you, your experience and your answer.

But there is one variable in upper-demo radio formats that isn't really replicated outside of that environment. You're choosing a format with a demographic that is losing listeners every single day, through death. And because of generational shifts in musical taste, those departing aren't automatically replaced by the next bunch of people to turn 55.

If you've chosen adult standards, when your 80, 90 and 100-plus-year-olds pass, there aren't an equal or greater number of people born in 1959 making it up on the low end.

You have a similar problem with pre-1972 oldies, and to an only slightly lesser extent, soft AC. Your bucket has a hole in it.

That's why the sweet spot is to find something that is strong 25-54 and ride the wave. Especially in an era like this where there is so much crossover between CHR and Adult Contemporary music. Your core listener has 15 years before (s)he ages out and you're already building the relationship with the listeners that will eventually take his/her place.

landtuna said:

A comment was made earlier (by Michael Hagerty I think) as to 'advertisers' as if they were one solid block. Does no one consider that advertisers are selling vastly different products and, as such, might have an interest in people of different ages?

Wouldn't an advertising campaign for toothpaste be far different than one for Buicks?

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Agencies have a target for their advertising campaigns, generally set by the client's marketing department. Essentially all agency campaigns using radio fall somewhere in the 18 to 54 year old range.

They may be 18-34, or 25-54 or 18-49. They may be English Dominant Hispanic Females 25-44. Or some other subset.

But the fact is that a station must deliver some part of the 18-54 demo that is desired by a specific account at a price that is commensurate with audience delivery, or it will not be on the buy. Ratings and rates are the metrics.

With local direct accounts, which become a bigger and bigger part of a station's revenue the smaller and smaller the market is, getting sales results is the measure of effectiveness. The ratings device is not a PPM, it is the cash register. That means a station has to pull in enough new customers to warrant the expense. Mr. Hagerty explained why ultra niche programming and senior-targeted programming do not generally produce sustainable revenue streams for major signal, competitive stations (although they may allow a daytime AM to survive with low costs and lower rates serving a small special segment).[/SIZE][/FONT]

michael hagerty said:

Okay, I see where you're coming from now.

Ending the Baby Boom in 1961 would have made it 15 years, which all the subsequent generations have been, but demographers set it at 1964 a long time back. We're stuck with it.

The problem with 42-54 is that half your audience is in its last six years of relevance to advertisers. And, as each year drops off, you're dealing with a declining birth rate. Going 25-54 allows you to move that center 15 years back from the brink. It also allows for the gradual arrival of that huge wave of milennials, the first of whom turn 25 next year, in your audience.

The opportunity adult stations have in cycles like this, where there's little difference between CHR and AC, is that they are listenable for younger demos, who may grow out of CHR and into AC. A 25-year-old in 1984 would have been unlikely to swap Cyndi Lauper, Van Halen and Michael Jackson for Neil Diamond, Barbra Streisand and Air Supply, but it's far less of a leap between formats today.

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AOR was aimed at Men 18-24 and some markets had three or four stations doing so! That's only seven years total and it nearly killed the format until it moved out to 25-34 but it worked great for awhile however when it was still 18-24, they had to constantly replace listeners. (Top 40 has always had to, to some extent, just not so soon.) Why couldn't they do that on the other end of the spectrum? I'm not suggesting programming to anyone over 55, just super-serving the upper end. By the way, I have a hard time believing that 45-54 women wouldn't want a station without a hard edge, at least part of the time. I'm not suggesting anything they aren't already listening to, just without the edge. (Soft AC tie-in) Edit: OK, I posted a rather lengthy response to this same post yesterday, that is now gone. I'm sure it got to the "posted" stage. I'm wondering if the system replaces a previous post, if you respond to the same one again. Be that as it may, my baby boomers graph seems to be different from Michael's information. I've always heard that the baby boom peaked in 1957 but I show it peaking in 1947, dropping down to the starting level in 1951 and then reaching secondary peaks in '55 and 57, before heading nearly straight down. In 1972, I show it even with the millennials' peak of 1991. It continues to drop until about 1977, when it begins a fairly steady climb.

semoochie said:

AOR was aimed at Men 18-24 and some markets had three or four stations doing so!

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I was between 18 and 24 when AOR first started. It was my favorite music. As I got older, the musicians kept cranking out new albums, and new musicians came along and they started cranking out new albums. As long as the radio stations kept up with the new albums that were being released constantly, I kept on listening. When "albums" switched from being on vinyl to on CD, that made no difference. I only stopped listening when they stopped keeping up with the new albums being released. and reverted to just playing the old "hits" from the glory days of AOR.

I would suspect that the same would have been true for stations that played more mellow music, AC type music.

semoochie said:

AOR was aimed at Men 18-24 and some markets had three or four stations doing so! That's only seven years total and it nearly killed the format until it moved out to 25-34 but it worked great for awhile however when it was still 18-24, they had to constantly replace listeners. (Top 40 has always had to, to some extent, just not so soon.) Why couldn't they do that on the other end of the spectrum? I'm not suggesting programming to anyone over 55, just super-serving the upper end.

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You half-answered your own question there, Semoochie. A narrow demo darn near killed AOR.

In addition to the boost from broadening out to 18-34, AOR benefitted from a constant crop of new 18-year-olds and a format based on current music that they perceived as hip. The format refreshed itself. If you go 42-54, you don't have that.

semoochie said:

By the way, I have a hard time believing that 45-54 women wouldn't want a station without a hard edge, at least part of the time. I'm not suggesting anything they aren't already listening to, just without the edge.

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Even if that were true, you're still in the same hole...a narrow demo with half of your audience 5 years or less from aging out....and playing music that the younger women aren't likely to gravitate toward as they move into the age range. If it worked (BIG if), it would work for maybe 3-5 years.

semoochie said:

...my baby boomers graph seems to be different from Michael's information. I've always heard that the baby boom peaked in 1957 but I show it peaking in 1947, dropping down to the starting level in 1951 and then reaching secondary peaks in '55 and 57, before heading nearly straight down.

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1946 3,470,000
1947 3,900,000
1948 3,590,000
1949 3,560,000
1950 3,600,000
1951 3,750,000
1952 3,850,000
1952 3,913,000
1953 3,965,000
1954 4,078,000
1955 4,104,000
1956 4,218,000
1957 4,308,000
1958 4,255,000
1959 4,295,000
1960 4,257,850
1961 4,268,326
1962 4,167,362
1963 4,098,020
1964 4,027,490


While there was a bump in 1947, it was equaled in 1953 and eclipsed every year from 1954 through 1964. So 1947 is not a peak. 1957 is the peak.

I have a hard time believing that too, semoochie.

A 50-year-old woman isn't June Cleaver, guys. Sandra Bullock, Courtney Cox, Courtney Love and Wendy Williams....that's 50.

michael hagerty said:

A 50-year-old woman isn't June Cleaver, guys. Sandra Bullock, Courtney Cox, Courtney Love and Wendy Williams....that's 50.

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While I am closer to the lower end of the AC demo (in my mid 30s), most of my current circle of friends are in the upper end of the AC demo, 45-50 and older. Like me, they have also become disenfranchised with AC, yet we still identify more with Sandra Bullock than June Cleaver.

Music Lover said:

While I am closer to the lower end of the AC demo (in my mid 30s), most of my current circle of friends are in the upper end of the AC demo, 45-50 and older. Like me, they have also become disenfranchised with AC, yet we still identify more with Sandra Bullock than June Cleaver.

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Remember, though that we're only discussing 45-50 and older in terms of why it's not the right spot for a successful AC. The middle of the target for AC is and always has been 40. And the format is doing exceptionally well right now.

I'm just saying that not everyone 30-50 and older perfectly fits your examples. There's times we like to rock out but there's also times we're interested in hearing something relaxing but the option to hear something relaxing is not available everywhere.

If my neck of the woods had a hybrid station, like this one: www.joy995.com, my friends and I would be tuning in.

The reason I refer to that as a hybrid station is this:

There are artists/songs that appeal to the 50, 60, and 70 year-olds:

1. Bread - Make It With You
2. Barbra Streisand - Evergreen
3. The Eagles - Tequila Sunrise
4. The Beatles - Let It Be
5. The Supremes - Baby Love
6. The Bee Gees - How Deep Is Your Love
7. The Carpenters - Goodbye To Love
8. Stevie Wonder - Send One Your Love
9. America - A Horse With No Name
10. The Platters - My Prayer
11. John Denver - Annie's Song
12. Anne Murray - You Needed Me
13. Elton John - Rocket Man
14. Rod Stewart - Tonight's The Night
15. Judy Collins - Send In The Clowns
16. 5th Dimension - Wedding Bell Blues
17. Hall and Oates - She's Gone
18. Chicago - If You Leave Me Now
19. Dionne Warwick - Walk On By
20. Barry Manilow - Mandy
21. Nat King Cole - When I Fall In Love

Mixed with artists/songs the 20, 30, and 40 year-olds would like - nothing too extremely edgy, yet still kind of fresh and hip.

1. Creed - With Arms Wide Open
2. Til Tuesday - Voices Carry
3. Bon Jovi - Never Say Goodbye
4. John Mellencamp - Jack and Diane
5. Miley Cyrus - Adore You (one of the few songs I can tolerate by her)
6. One Direction - The Story of My Life
7. Bruno Mars - Just The Way You Are
8. Jason DeRulo - Marry Me
9. Passenger - Let Her Go
10. Daughtry - Waiting For Superman
11. Hoobastank - The Reason
12. A Great Big World/Christina Aguilera - Say Something
13. Colbie Caillat - Hold On
14. The Fugees - Killing Me Softly
15. Soft Cell - Tainted Love
16. Lady Antebellum - Need You Now
17. The Bangles - Manic Monday
18. Adele - Rolling In The Deep
19. Michael Buble - Haven't Met You Yet
20. Maroon 5 - Love Somebody
21. Evanescence - My Immortal